- Domestic-import HRC price gap around INR 3,000/t from non-FTA countries
- Offers from FTA countries align closely with domestic price levels
India’s hot-rolled coil (HRC) market is seeing a notable price gap with imports despite the sustained rise in prices, with domestic rates lower by about INR 3,000/t ($32/t) compared to imports as of 31 March 2026, according to BigMint calculations.
For non-FTA countries, the CFR price of HRC was assessed at around $530/t on 31 March. After adding 7.5% basic customs duty (BCD) and 0.75% cess, the price comes to approximately $574/t. At an assumed exchange rate of $93/t, the value translates to about INR 53,443/t. The 12% safeguard duty, along with a 1.2% cess, adds roughly $76/t, taking the cost to about $650/t or INR 60,519/t. After adding port handling charges of around INR 2,000/t, the total landed cost of imports from non-FTA countries is estimated at approximately INR 62,500/t.
Similarly, CFR offers from FTA countries were heard at around $540/t. Due to FTA there is no BCD and after adding the 12% safeguard duty, along with 1.2% cess, roughly $71/t, it translates to a landed cost of approximately INR 58,900/t, slightly lower than imports from non-FTA countries.
Meanwhile, BigMint’s benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRC (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL), ex-Mumbai, was assessed at INR 59,500/t on 31 March, up by INR 2,000/t w-o-w from INR 57,500/t in the previous week. Prices are assessed at the distributor-to-dealer level and exclude 18% GST.
At current levels, the spread between domestic benchmark prices and the landed cost of imports from non-FTA countries is estimated at approximately INR 3,000/t. In contrast, imports from FTA countries are arriving at costs closely aligned with domestic market prices, placing them in direct competition with local producers.
If domestic mills continue to raise prices, imports from FTA countries will even undercut local prices making them a more attractive option for buyers.
Domestic market update
Major Indian steelmakers have increased list prices of HRC by INR 1,500-3,500/t ($16-38/t) for early-April sales. List prices of HRCs (2.5-8 mm, IS2062, Gr E250 Br) ranged within INR 58,050-59,850/t ($625-644/t) ex-Mumbai.
M-o-m, trade-level HRC prices rose by INR 2,850/t ($30/t) to INR 56,600/t ($609/t) in March, up from INR 53,750/t ($579/t) in February. The rise is underpinned by constrained material supply, sustained raw material cost pressures, and an uncertain geopolitical landscape.
Bulk HRC imports
Bulk HRC imports into India in March totalled to 252,877 t, marking a decline of 15% from 297,505 t in March 2025, as per BigMint’s vessel line-up data. Moreover, imports dropped by 30% m-o-m compared to 361,248 t in February.
In March, South Korea, Japan, and China remained the top three bulk HRC exporters to India, shipping 114,344 t, 62,352 t, and 44,031 t, respectively. Imports from South Korea fell by 37% m-o-m and from China by 47%. However, Japanese shipments rose by 35% m-o-m.
Outlook
In the near term, heightened price volatility is increasing risk exposure for market participants, prompting many to secure material at prevailing prices to avoid further uncertainty. This cautious buying behaviour is, in turn, dampening import volumes, as buyers are increasingly shifting towards domestic products. The preference for local sourcing is largely driven by ongoing disruptions in overseas trade, which continue to create uncertainty around shipment timelines, costs, and overall supply reliability.
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