- HRC prices rise while rebar remains stable
- Cautious sentiment weighs on HRC futures
China’s steel prices remained mixed in the week beginning 6 April 2026, with domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices rising w-o-w, while rebar prices remaining stable w-ow. Raw materials, including iron ore prices remained stable, while billet and coking coal prices increased w-o-w.
1. Iron ore spot prices remain largely stable w-o-w: Iron ore fines benchmark prices for Fe 61% held firm w-o-w at $108/dmt CFR China on 2 April 2026. Earlier drawdown of port inventories by mills weighed on near-term demand, and low-grade fines remained under pressure as miners increased discounts for April 2026 term contracts. Meanwhile, shrinking portside resale margins and elevated port handling costs reduced demand for additional imports.
a) Spot pellet premium firms up w-o-w: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellet rose by $0.2/t to $17.75/t CFR China on 2 Apr.
b) Spot lump premium softens w-o-w: Spot lump premium edged down by $0.03/t w-o-w to $0.1550/dmtu on 2 Apr.
2. China’s coke market strengthens w-o-w: In China, the coke market strengthened on 2 April following the full implementation of the first round of coke price increases. Coking coal supply remained adequate and prices were largely stable, while coke plants maintained normal production levels and relatively low inventories. Improving steel demand supported the market, with blast furnace utilisation rising to around 75%. These developments signal improving consumption of metallurgical coke in China, which could influence regional market sentiment.
In the seaborne market, Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices edged up by $2/t to $237/t FOB as of 3 April, supported by firm offers from suppliers and improved buying interest. Correspondingly, BigMint’s PHCC index at Paradip increased by $1/t w-o-w to $264/t CNF on 2 April, reflecting steady import demand and resilient global coking coal fundamentals.
3. Chinese billet prices rise w-o-w, futures decline: Chinese billet prices increased w-o-w by RMB 20/t ($3/t) to RMB 2,980/t ($433/t) on 3 April, compared with RMB 2,960/t ($428/t) on 27 March, supported by improved sentiment, supply uncertainties, and stronger steel prices early in the week. However, gains plateaued mid-to-late week due to moderate demand, holiday-led slowdown, and softer raw material trends.
While rebar demand and trading activity improved initially, rising supply and slower sales limited further upside. Iron ore prices showed early strength but later declined by around RMB 25/t ($4/t) , and coke prices also softened, reducing cost support.
Meanwhile, SHFE rebar futures fell by RMB 42/t ($6/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,097/t ($450/t) on 3 April compared with RMB 3,124/t ($452/t) on 27 March, cautious market sentiment and weaker downstream demand. Export sentiment remained stable, with mills holding offers but showing flexibility amid global uncertainties.
4. Domestic HRC prices edge higher w-o-w: China’s domestic HRC prices inched up by RMB 10/t ($1/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,120/t ($453/t) on 3 April from RMB 3,130 ($454/t) a week earlier, supported by firm raw material costs and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which continued to support spot prices.
However, sentiment in the futures market remained relatively weak, with the SHFE HRC May 2026 contract declining by RMB 29/t ($4/t) to RMB 3,268/t ($475/t) on 3 April, down from RMB 3,297/t ($479/t) in the previous week. Meanwhile, China’s HRC offer prices rose by $10/t w-o-w to $500/t FOB, compared with $490/t a week earlier.
5. Rebar prices remain stable w-o-w: China’s rebar prices remained stable w-o-w at RMB 3,210/t ($466/t) as of 3 April 2026, supported by relatively firm end-user demand, which helped maintain spot market stability. However, the May 2026 rebar contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined by RMB 21/t ($3/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,100/t ($450/t) on 3 April, down from RMB 3,121/t ($453/t) on 27 March 2026.
China’s Shagang Steel has continued to keep its long steel prices unchanged for early-April 2026 sales, with no price revisions announced since 11 September 2025. Prices of rebars, coiled rebars, and wire rods are as follows:
- Rebars (16-25 mm): RMB 3,450/t ($501/t)
- Coiled rebars (8-10 mm): RMB 3,560/t ($517/t)
- Wire rods (6-10 mm): RMB 3,470/t ($504/t)
Outlook
China’s steel market is expected to remain broadly stable in the coming week, as the earlier boost from geopolitical tensions gradually moderates. While spot prices may hold steady in the near term, softer futures sentiment and cautious demand are likely to cap any significant upside. Overall, market direction will largely hinge on movements in raw material prices, as well as the pace and sustainability of demand recovery.
Leave a Reply