- New crop arrivals rising across Gujarat and Rajasthan
- Lower sowing, Gujarat output decline could tighten supply
India’s cumin (jeera) market is currently facing mild pressure as fresh crop arrivals begin entering key markets across Gujarat and Rajasthan. Jeera futures recently slipped about 0.44% to settle near INR 22,445 per quintal as traders reacted to increasing supply from the new harvest. Arrivals at Unjha mandi, the benchmark trading hub, have already reached around 35,000-40,000 bags, while Rajasthan markets such as Jodhpur are reporting about 1,500 bags per day and Nagaur-Merta together around 1,500-1,800 bags daily.
The pace of arrivals is expected to increase further through March as harvesting gains momentum, creating near-term pressure on prices.
In the physical market, price trends remain mixed depending on quality and crop availability. New jeera in Unjha is reported near INR 22,500 per quintal, while old crop trades around INR 20,500. Rajasthan mandis such as Jodhpur are quoting new crop around INR 21,500, with other markets like Nagaur and Merta City seeing prices between INR 19,000 and INR 21,500 depending on quality.
Futures prices on NCDEX have largely tracked the physical market, with the March contract trading near INR 22,200-22,400 levels. Rising open interest alongside falling prices indicates fresh selling pressure as traders anticipate higher arrivals in the coming weeks.
Supply outlook
Despite the current arrival pressure, the overall supply outlook is slightly tighter this year. India’s cumin production is estimated at around 90-92 lakh bags, significantly lower than last season’s nearly 1.1 crore bags. Lower sowing in Gujarat is one of the key reasons for this decline, with acreage falling to around 4.08 lakh hectares, about 7% below the three-year average. Gujarat’s production is expected to drop sharply due to lower acreage and yield losses, while Rajasthan’s output may increase due to higher sowing area, partly balancing the overall supply.
Crop conditions remain mixed across producing regions. Reports of erratic weather and disease pressure such as blights have affected yield potential in some pockets, while rising aphid infestation risks in parts of Rajasthan are also being monitored closely by traders. These risks could influence final output if pest pressure increases during the harvest stage.
Export outlook subdued
On the demand side, export activity remains relatively subdued in the short term. India remains the world’s largest producer and exporter of cumin, with Rajasthan and Gujarat accounting for nearly 90% of the country’s cultivation area. However, buyers such as China and Bangladesh have shown cautious buying at current price levels, while geopolitical uncertainties in parts of West Asia have also slowed trade flows. As a result, the market currently relies more on domestic demand from spice processors and food manufacturers.
From a technical perspective, the market is currently witnessing fresh selling pressure. Immediate support is seen around INR 22,290, with a break below this level potentially testing INR 22,130. Stronger support is placed near INR 20,950. At the same time, indicators suggest the market has entered oversold territory, which may trigger short covering. On the upside, resistance is seen near INR 22,620 and INR 22,790, while a technical rebound could push prices toward INR 22,532 if buying interest emerges.
Looking ahead, the near-term direction will largely depend on the pace of arrivals and export demand recovery. If arrivals accelerate sharply in March, prices may remain under pressure in the INR 21,000-22,500 range. However, if the lower crop outlook in Gujarat starts tightening supply and export demand improves, the market could find stronger support later in the season. For traders, the current structure suggests a range-bound market in the short term with volatility likely to increase as peak arrivals approach.
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