China: Steel inventories at key CISA mills decline by 4% in late-Feb’26

• Lower crude steel output signals softer production momentum
• Elevated y-o-y inventories reflect persistent demand weakness

The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) reported that total steel inventory at key Chinese enterprises reached 17.34 million tonnes (mnt) in late February 2026 (21-28 February), down by 780,000 tonnes (t) or 4.3% compared with 18.12 mnt in mid-February 2026.

However, inventories rose by 2.63 mnt or 17.9% m-o-m from 14.71 mnt in late-January 2026, and were also 1.03 mnt or 6.3% higher compared with 16.31 mnt recorded in late-February 2025.

Production volume

The average daily crude steel output of CISA-affiliated enterprises stood at 2.027 mnt in late-February, down by 0.1% from 2.029 mnt in mid-February 2026. Moreover, output declined by 10.2% y-o-y from 2.25 mnt in late-February 2025.

Average daily finished steel output stood at 2.111 mnt in late-February 2026, marking an increase of 11% from 1.901 mnt in mid-February 2026. However, this level was 8.3% lower on a y-o-y basis.

Average daily pig iron output stood at 1.897 mnt in late-February 2026, up by 2.9% from 1.844 mnt in mid-February 2026. However, output declined by 4.5% y-o-y compared to the same period last year.

Outlook

The decline in inventories at key Chinese mills in late February suggests that supply may have eased slightly in the short term. However, inventories remain higher on both a monthly and yearly basis, indicating that overall supply levels are still elevated, as domestic demand still remains weak. Meanwhile, the y-o-y decline in crude steel output points to softer production momentum. Demand recovery, particularly as participants fully return after the Lunar New Year holidays, will be a key factor in determining whether inventories continue to normalise or remain elevated in the coming weeks.