- Several trading houses withhold fresh offers amid US-Iran tensions
- Benchmark HBA prices of low-CV grades raised slightly in early-Mar
Indian portside prices for Indonesian-origin thermal coal increased sharply w-o-w on 03 March 2026, supported by tight supply and geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, which have injected uncertainty into global energy markets.
The situation prompted cautious trading activity, with several trading houses temporarily withholding fresh offers amid lack of clarity regarding further price movements. At the same time, steady procurement by domestic consumers and relatively tight spot availability at key ports reinforced the upward momentum in portside prices.
Additionally, as per foreign media reports, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has set Indonesia’s domestic market obligation (DMO) for coal at 247.9 million tonnes (mnt) for 2026, marginally lower than the actual 254 mnt supplied in 2025. However, BigMint could not confirm this at the time of publishing this report.
Portside prices strengthen across grades
Thermal coal prices at major Indian ports continued to trend higher w-o-w, reflecting active buying interest and tightening prompt availability.
According to BigMint’s latest assessment, 5,000 GAR coal prices rose by INR 450/t w-o-w, reaching INR 8,800/t at Kandla and INR 8,700/t at Vizag. The 4,200 GAR segment also registered a similar increase of INR 600/t, with prices climbing to INR 7,100/t at Kandla and INR 7,000/t at Vizag.
Lower-grade coal witnessed comparable gains. 3,400 GAR coal prices increased by INR 500/t w-o-w to INR 5,400/t at Navlakhi, supported by demand from price-sensitive industrial consumers seeking cost-effective fuel options.
Market participants noted that heightened geopolitical uncertainty has created volatility in the spot market. According to a trader, “sellers have temporarily held back offers amid rapidly changing price indications, with the market turning increasingly uncertain as global developments unfold.”
Mixed trend in Indonesian HBA benchmarks
Indonesia’s Harga Batubara Acuan (HBA) benchmarks for the first half of March 2026 reflected mixed movements across calorific value segments, indicating differentiated demand trends.
Higher-calorific value benchmarks recorded marginal declines. The 6,322 kcal/kg GAR benchmark eased to $102.37/t, suggesting relatively softer buying interest for premium coal grades. Similarly, the 5,300 kcal/kg GAR (HBA-I) index slipped to $71.29/t, reflecting comfortable inventories among certain importing markets.
In contrast, lower-calorific value grades saw modest gains. HBA-II (4,100 kcal/kg GAR) increased to $47.6/t, while HBA-III (3,400 kcal/kg GAR) rose to $34.25/t, supported by sustained demand from cost-conscious buyers across Asia.
Outlook
In the near term, Indian portside thermal coal prices are expected to remain firm, supported by geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, cautious seller sentiment, and steady industrial demand.
However, further gains may be limited due to softer higher-CV benchmarks from Indonesia and comfortable inventories among some Indian consumers, keeping prices firm but volatile in the coming weeks.
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