Global thermal coal stocks tighten – yet prices remain stable as markets catch their breath

• Chinese holidays, market uncertainty reduce buyer urgency
• If demand rises even modestly, tight stocks could lift prices 

Thermal coal inventories across major exporting and consuming regions remain well below historical norms, underscoring the structural tightness in the market.

As of 23 February 2026, China’s northern ports held roughly 14.7 mnt, sharply lower y-o-y. South Africa’s Richards Bay terminal stood near 3.5 mnt, down about 16% m-o-m. In Europe, stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub were around 2.8 mnt, still more than 18% below year-ago levels.

These figures suggest that the global supply cushion remains thin despite adequate production flows.

Prices stabilise after strong rally

Despite tight inventories, prices have paused following recent gains. Around 23 February, Newcastle 6,000 kcal coal traded near $116/t FOB, while Richards Bay coal hovered around $102-103/t. Delivered coal into northwest Europe was assessed near $112-113/t, slightly softer w-o-w.

This stabilisation reflects a market consolidating rather than weakening.

Short-term factors reduce buying urgency

The current pause appears driven by timing rather than fundamentals. Trading activity slowed during the Lunar New Year period, reducing spot liquidity just as prices had rallied.

At the same time, uncertainty surrounding Indonesian export policy and improving European weather forecasts reduced immediate procurement pressure.

Europe’s gas market reinforces this cautious tone. Storage levels fell to roughly 31% of capacity by late February, well below seasonal norms, yet milder weather expectations have limited short-term power demand.

Underlying balance still points to tightness

The broader structural picture remains supportive. With inventories low across several regions, even modest demand growth — from weather shifts, industrial recovery, or policy changes — could tighten the market quickly.

Outlook: A pause, not reversal

The coal market today does not appear weak. Instead, it is consolidating after a rally while participants assess near-term signals.

If demand strengthens again, tight stock levels suggest that prices could regain upward momentum in the months ahead.