India: Jeera prices slip w-o-w on weak trade, rising new arrivals; limited upside seen

• Rajasthan arrivals to start in Mar’26, Unjha flows cross 1,000-1,500 bags
• Lower production outlook offset by steep decline in export volumes

Indian jeera prices fell w-o-w in the physical and futures markets as local and export trade slowed further. Spot prices declined by around INR 150-200/quintal w-o-w on 11 February 2026 due to weak demand, while new crop arrivals started gaining momentum in Gujarat. At Unjha, arrivals of new jeera reached 1,000-1,500 bags, with fresh inflows also increasing gradually in Rajkot, Gondal, Jasdan and other key mandis. In futures, NCDEX March jeera INR 23,280 per quintal closed lower by INR 45/quintal, while the April contract INR 23,300 per quintal declined by INR 105/quintal, reflecting near-term pressure from rising supply.

Market sentiment turned cautious as traders anticipate a steady increase in arrivals in the coming days. Although overall production is expected to decline this year due to lower sowing — especially in Gujarat — the immediate supply pressure from fresh crop arrivals is limiting any sharp price rise. If weather conditions remain favourable in Rajasthan, new crop arrivals from the state are expected to begin in March, which could further add to mandi supplies and keep prices under check.

On the demand side, export buying remains subdued. January 2026 export data shows jeera shipments at 8,961 tonnes (t), down significantly from around 14,000 t in January 2025 and 11,500 t in December 2025. The final export figures may vary by around 10%, but the downtrend indicates that overseas demand remains insufficient. Buyers in key destinations remain price-sensitive and are booking limited quantities, which is restricting upward momentum despite expectations of lower production this season.

Fundamentally, the market presents a mixed picture. On one hand, acreage in Gujarat has declined y-o-y, tightening the overall supply outlook for the season. On the other hand, comfortable carry-forward stocks and the seasonal rise in arrivals are balancing the equation. As a result, prices are unlikely to see a significant rally in the near term unless there is a sudden surge in export demand or unexpected weather disruption.

For traders and exporters, the focus now shifts to the pace of arrivals in both Gujarat and Rajasthan. If arrivals accelerate sharply from March onward, the market may remain under pressure. However, any adverse weather development or stronger export inquiries could quickly change sentiment. Until then, jeera is expected to trade in a softer or possibly stable tone with limited upside.