- HRC, rebar prices fall w-o-w
- Raw material prices drop but coking coal rises
Chinese steel prices fell in the week ended 6 February, with domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) and rebar prices declining w-o-w. Raw materials, including iron ore and billet, also recorded drops, while coking coal prices rose w-o-w.
China Iron and Steel Association reported that total steel inventory at key Chinese industries stood at 14.71 million tonnes (mnt) in late-January (21-31 January), down by 1.42 mnt or 8.8% compared to 16.13 mnt in mid-January. However, m-o-m, inventory levels increased by 570,000 t or 4% from 14.14 mnt in late December. Moreover, inventories decreased by 640,000 t or 4.2% y-o-y against 15.35 mnt a year ago.
1. Iron ore spot prices decline w-o-w: Iron ore fines benchmark prices for Fe 61% fell by $4/t w-o-w to $99/dmt CFR China on 6 Feb’26. Prices edged lower as sentiment weakened on rising port stocks, possible steel output cuts, and soft demand. Spot activity was thin after mills completed pre-Lunar New Year restocking, while falling futures kept buyers on the sidelines in expectation of further price declines.
a) Spot pellet premium dips w-o-w: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellet fell by $1.95/t to $16.35/t CFR China on 4 February.
b) Spot lump premium stable w-o-w: Spot lump premium edge remained largely stable w-o-w at $0.045/dmtu on 6 February.
3. Coking coal market remains stable: Chinese domestic coking coal market remained stable, with prices unchanged across key regions, supported by low inventories and contract deliveries despite weak demand and expectations of gradual supply tightening from holiday-related mine shutdowns.
In contrast, Australian PHCC prices edged up by $2/t to $253/t FOB, while BigMint’s PHCC index for Paradip, India, also increased by $3/t to $265/t on 06 February 2026, supported by firmer seaborne sentiment.
3. Billet prices fall w-o-w: Chinese billet prices fell RMB 30/t w-o-w to RMB 2,910/t ($420/t) on 6 February compared with RMB 2,940/t ($423/t) on 30 January, as pre-Lunar New Year caution and futures pressure dampened market sentiment. Early-week declines were driven by buyer resistance after rapid futures-led gains, while physical demand remained muted despite policy optimism.
Midweek, prices briefly stabilised on limited arrivals and mill production adjustments, supported by higher iron ore and coke costs. However, sentiment weakened again toward week-end as iron ore prices dropped sharply towards the weekend, eroding cost support and pressuring spot trade.
SHFE rebar futures mirrored the softer tone, sliding RMB 43/t ($6/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,069/t ($441/t), as thin liquidity, risk-off sentiment, and easing raw material prices constrained upside momentum across the steel complex.
4. Domestic HRC prices edge down w-o-w: Domestic HRC prices in China declined by RMB 30/t ($4/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,050/t ($440/t) on 6 February, down from RMB 3,080/t ($444/t) on 30 January, tracking the decline in SHFE HRC futures (May 2026 contract), which dropped by RMB 45/t ($6/t) over the week to RMB 3,257/t ($470/t) on 6 February, compared with RMB 3,302/t ($476/t) a week earlier. Meanwhile, China’s HRC export offers also softened, easing by $5/t w-o-w to around $465/t FOB on 6 February from $470/t FOB in the previous week.
Overall, market sentiment remained subdued amid weak demand ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in the region. Trading activity stayed slow, with market participants adopting a wait-and-watch approach as downstream buying largely came to a standstill. Consequently, the market entered a typical pre-holiday lull, marked by limited transactions. As the holiday effect became more apparent, prices largely stabilised towards the end of the week.
5. Rebar prices fall w-o-w: China’s rebar prices fell w-o-w by RMB 50/t ($7/t) to RMB 3,120/t ($450/t) on 6 February from RMB 3,170/t ($457/t) a week earlier. The drop mirrored the weakening trend in SHFE futures, with the May 2026 rebar contract falling by RMB 57/t ($8/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,090/t ($446/t) on 6 February from RMB 3,147/t ($454/t) on 30 January. The decline in prices was largely driven by seasonally slowing demand and subdued construction activity ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, which kept buyers cautious and purchasing activity limited.
China’s Shagang Steel has continued to keep its long steel prices unchanged for early-February sales, with no price revisions announced since 11 September last. Prices of rebars, coiled rebars, and wire rods are as follows:
- Rebars (16-25 mm): RMB 3,450/t ($497/t)
- Coiled rebars (8-10 mm): RMB 3,560 ($513/t)
- Wire rods (6-10 mm): RMB 3,470/t ($500/t)
Outlook
China’s steel market is expected to remain under pressure in the coming week due to the Lunar New Year holidays, as trading activity is likely to stay muted amid softer demand during the seasonal slowdown. Any price recovery will depend on a pickup in downstream buying after the holiday period, with clearer market direction expected to emerge thereafter as participants return and market activity gradually resumes.
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