- Three-year supply tightness keeps prices supported
- Higher sowing and yield recovery cap sharp upside ahead of arrivals
What happened
Turmeric prices continued to trade firm, with futures recently settling near INR 16,550, supported by below-normal arrivals and steady domestic as well as export demand. Physical markets such as Nizamabad also closed marginally higher, reflecting tight on-ground availability. Over the last three seasons, the turmeric market has remained structurally tight despite gradual recovery in acreage, as lower carry-forward stocks and intermittent weather disruptions have limited effective supply. Export demand has stayed resilient, while imports have declined sharply, further supporting prices.
Why it happened
A review of the past three seasons shows that turmeric supply growth has lagged demand growth. During 2023-24, acreage was constrained and adverse weather impacted yields, resulting in lower dried output and elevated prices. In 2024-25, acreage improved modestly, but uneven monsoon distribution and disease pressure restricted yield gains, keeping dried production at around 82.5 lakh bags and leaving carry-forward stocks at historically low levels. Prices during this period remained firm, encouraging better sowing in the current season.
For 2025-26, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up around 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. All-India dried turmeric output is estimated at around 90 lakh bags, marking a recovery from last season. However, the increase in output is largely absorbed by lower opening stocks, limiting the rise in net availability. Weather risks also remain relevant. Unseasonal heavy rains during August-September caused waterlogging and disease issues across nearly 15% of the cropped area in parts of Marathwada and adjoining regions, resulting in 15-20% yield losses in affected belts. Despite these losses, Maharashtra’s dried output is still expected to rise to around 54 lakh bags, while other producing states together may contribute close to 40 lakh bags.
On the demand side, exports have provided steady support. During April-November 2025, turmeric exports rose by 4.88% year-on-year, while imports declined sharply by 44.52%, improving the domestic balance. Rising adoption of IPM cultivation has supported export-grade availability, with Europe and the US remaining key destinations. Weaker quality output from Indonesia has further diverted demand towards Indian turmeric.
What may happen next
In the near term, turmeric prices are likely to remain supported due to low carry-forward stocks, controlled arrivals, and steady export demand. However, upside momentum may remain capped as higher acreage and expectations of better average yields begin to reflect in arrivals over the coming months. Any acceleration in arrivals or slowdown in exports could pressure prices, though downside risk appears limited unless production exceeds current estimates. For traders and brokers, close tracking of arrivals, quality parameters, and export shipment data will remain critical in assessing price direction through the season.
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