Japanese H2 scrap prices ease, US market faces supply crunch in winter

• Vietnamese buyers cautious ahead of Lunar New Year
• US winter disruptions support firm scrap sentiment

Japan’s H2 scrap prices softened as a stronger yen pressured dollar realisations despite tight domestic supply, while Vietnamese buying stayed cautious ahead of the Lunar New Year. In the US, winter weather tightened scrap availability, supporting firm seller sentiment and expectations of higher February settlements, keeping global scrap prices supported.

Japanese scrap prices ease 

BigMint assessed Japan’s H2 scrap at JPY 44,800/t ($291/t) FOB Tokyo Bay, down JPY 400/t ($3/t) w-o-w.

Offers to Vietnam were heard at $330-335/t CFR, up $5/t w-o-w, while bids improved to around $325/t CFR, with tradable levels assessed at $327-328/t.

Market participants stated that JPY appreciation lifted replacement costs, prompting some Japanese exporters to withhold offers. However, buying activity from Vietnam remained muted as mills adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Lunar New Year, although restocking was reported at normal levels. Tight scrap generation in Japan and firmer domestic prices continued to limit exporters’ willingness to concede on prices.

US scrap prices rise on winter supply crunch

In the US, ferrous scrap prices edged up in February, as an approaching winter storm threatened to disrupt scrap collection across much of the eastern region. Although February delivered prices were initially expected to settle largely flat m-o-m, tightening supply conditions strengthened seller sentiment.

Several participants expect delivered shredded scrap settlements to rise by $20-30/t. Market activity remained subdued amid extreme weather, which curtailed collections and logistics, reinforcing a tight supply outlook.

Recent deals: A US origin HMS 80:20 procured at $377.5/t, CFR Turkiye.

FOB assessments (US East Coast, bulk)

• HMS 80:20: $351/t, up by $1/t w-o-w
• Shredded: $371/t, up by $1/t w-o-w

US-origin HMS 80:20, bulk – CFR assessments

• Turkiye: $377/t, up by $1/t w-o-w
• Vietnam: $342/t, up by $2/t w-o-w
• Bangladesh: $367/t, stable w-o-w

Outlook
Ferrous scrap prices are expected to remain supported, underpinned by tight supply in Japan, a post-Lunar New Year pickup in Asian demand, and weather-related disruptions in the US, although currency volatility and cautious near-term procurement may cap sharp upside.