LME base metals surge on tight supplies, strong momentum

  • Nickel strengthens despite marginal inventory build
  • EGA-Century deal targets US aluminium revival

Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose sharply on 27 January, with broad-based gains across the complex. Aluminium prices climbed 1.77% to $3,189/t, while LME stocks declined 0.79% to 505,275 t, pointing to continued inventory drawdowns. Nickel also strengthened, rising 2.92% to $18,522/t, even as stocks inched up 0.37% to 285,552 t, suggesting adequate near-term availability.

Copper prices surged 3.47% to $13,199/t, accompanied by a 1.35% increase in inventories to 170,525 t, indicating ongoing inflows at exchange warehouses despite strong price momentum. Zinc outperformed the complex, jumping 4.10% to $3,343/t, supported by a 0.34% decline in stocks to 111,325 t, highlighting tightening supply conditions. Lead prices edged up 0.89% to $2,038/t, while inventories fell 2.21% to 213,600 t, signalling improving supply tightness alongside firmer prices.

Domestic market overview

In India’s non-ferrous metals markets, aluminium Tense scrap prices showed mixed movement d-o-d. Ex-Delhi assessments were unchanged at INR 207,000/t, reflecting subdued buying interest, while ex-Chennai prices jumped by INR 5,00/t to INR 211,500/t, indicating notably stronger regional demand. Meanwhile, copper armature scrap prices, ex-Delhi, increased by INR 5,000/t to INR 1,120,000/t, pointing to steady demand and a wait-and-watch approach among market participants.

Other updates

EGA-Century pact to revive US primary aluminium capacity

Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) has signed a joint development agreement with Century Aluminium to build the first new primary aluminium smelter in the US in nearly five decades, with EGA holding a 60% stake and Century the remaining 40%. Planned at Inola, Oklahoma, the $4 billion project is expected to produce 750,000 tpy of aluminium-more than doubling current US output-while creating around 1,000 permanent jobs and 4,000 construction roles. Construction is slated to begin by end-2026, with production targeted before the decade’s close, as the plant aims to reduce the US’s heavy reliance on aluminium imports and strengthen domestic supply for key industries.

Nalco plans green power push to enable low-carbon aluminium

State-owned National Aluminium Company Ltd. (Nalco) plans to develop 200-300 MW of renewable energy capacity integrated with battery storage as part of its transition to low-carbon aluminium production, aiming to cut emissions from its power-intensive smelting operations. The company currently meets all its electricity needs through coal-based captive plants, which contribute nearly 80% of its total carbon footprint, and is accelerating the shift towards green aluminium, Chairman and Managing Director Brijendra Pratap Singh said. Power accounts for around 35-40% of aluminium production costs, with Nalco’s captive coal power costing ₹3-3.5 per unit versus renewable tariffs of about ₹4.5–5 per unit, underscoring the cost and reliability challenges alongside the decarbonisation drive.

Nornickel’s China copper smelter project hits delay

Russia’s MMC Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) is facing delays in developing a proposed 500,000 tpy copper smelter in Fangchenggang, Guangxi, after its Chinese joint-venture partner withdrew following management changes, prompting the miner to seek a new local partner. The project, first announced in early 2024 and originally targeted for commissioning in 2027, is aimed at moving refining closer to Nornickel’s key Chinese customers-who account for over half its sales-while enabling the closure of its aging Norilsk copper plant to meet stringent sulfur dioxide emission reduction targets. The delay comes amid weak smelting margins in China due to capacity additions, even as record-high copper prices and Western technology sanctions continue to shape Nornickel’s strategic push to cut costs and secure alternative processing routes.