India: Turmeric prices stay firm as arrivals lag, weather remains favourable

• Spot, NCDEX prices supported by tight near-term availability
• IMD forecasts dry weather, limiting harvest-related risk

Turmeric prices continued to trade firm in the domestic market during 16-23 January as arrivals remained lower than normal for this stage of the season, and fresh supply was yet to pick up meaningfully. In key mandis, average spot prices of good-quality turmeric were assessed in the range of INR 17,000-18,000/quintal, depending on origin and quality, as per aggregated mandi data. On the derivatives side, NCDEX turmeric near-month futures were trading broadly around INR 17,600-17,900/quintal, reflecting expectations of continued tight supply in the near term. The futures-spot alignment indicates that the market is factoring in limited availability ahead of peak harvest flows.

Pre-harvest supply tightness keeps prices supported

Turmeric arrivals remained muted even as harvesting activity started in major producing states such as Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and parts of Karnataka. Trade feedback suggests that arrivals are still at a pre-peak level, with farmers releasing stocks cautiously. Historically, arrivals build sharply from late January into February and March, but current inflows have yet to show that acceleration. This has kept physical availability tight in consuming centres, lending support to spot prices and preventing any sharp correction despite seasonal harvest expectations.

Additionally, supply timing, rather than structural production dynamics, has also influenced the current stable pricing. Farmers and local stockists are holding back stocks in anticipation of better price realisation, especially with NCDEX futures still trading at elevated levels. Demand from traders and exporters remains steady, absorbing available supplies.

Dry weather to limit harvest-related risks

On the weather front, data from the India Meteorological Department shows dry weather very likely across Gujarat over the next 7-10 days, while northwest India, including parts of Rajasthan, may see isolated light rainfall due to a western disturbance. However, IMD forecasts do not indicate widespread or heavy rainfall events. This means there is no immediate weather threat to standing or harvested turmeric crops, and harvesting operations are expected to continue smoothly. Dry conditions also reduce the risk of fungal or moisture-related quality damage during lifting and curing.

Outlook

Turmeric prices are likely to remain firm in the near term until arrivals increase visibly. If arrivals start rising towards historical norms over the next two to three weeks, some downward pressure could emerge on spot prices. However, if arrivals remain slower than usual or if farmers continue staggered selling, price support may persist longer into February.

With weather risk currently low, the market’s next directional cue will come from actual arrival data and the pace at which fresh crop supply hits mandis. Traders and exporters will closely track arrival volumes, quality trends, and NCDEX price behaviour to assess whether the current tightness eases or extends further into the peak season.