- Comfortable stocks, rising NCDEX open interest keep sentiment cautious
- Lower acreage, weather risks, quality premiums lend medium-term support
Jeera prices weakened during the week (13-19 January 2026), as adequate availability from old stocks and subdued export demand continued to pressure the market. On NCDEX, the near-month jeera contract declined around 0.7% to settle near INR 23,535/quintal, while spot prices at Unjha eased about 0.6% to INR 22,535/quintal. Futures remain at a premium over spot, reflecting expectations of tighter availability in the coming months, but near-term sentiment is dominated by weak buying interest.
From a futures market perspective, NCDEX jeera contracts have seen fresh short positions, with open interest rising by over 6%, signalling expectations of limited upside in the short term. Technically, the market is holding above key support zones, but rallies are being sold into. Immediate support is seen near INR 23,380/quintal, followed by INR 23,220/quintal, while resistance is placed around INR 23,770/quintal. A sustained move above this level could open the way towards INR 24,000/quintal, though strong fundamentals are needed to support such a breakout.
Muted export demand weighs on prices
Export demand remains the key drag. Trade sources indicate that current overseas business is largely being fulfilled from existing inventories, with limited fresh contracts being booked. Buying interest from major destinations such as the Gulf countries and China has been sporadic and highly price-sensitive. As a result, India’s jeera exports during April-October 2025 declined by around 13.2% y-o-y, reinforcing concerns over demand visibility. The end of the domestic retail season has further reduced spot market activity, while intermittent holidays across trading centres have disrupted normal trade flows.
Concerns over future supply support prices
On the supply side, concerns over the upcoming crop are preventing a sharp correction. In Gujarat, the largest jeera-producing state, sowing stands at around 3.98 lakh hectares, down 16.3% y-o-y. Uneven rainfall and delayed field preparation have resulted in one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years. Rajasthan sowing is also progressing cautiously, with farmers closely tracking weather conditions before accelerating planting. Arrivals at Unjha remain lower than normal seasonal averages, particularly for good-quality lots, which are commanding premium prices in the physical market.
Production estimates for the 2025-26 season are being revised lower. Total jeera output is currently projected at 90-92 lakh bags, sharply below last season’s around 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat production is estimated at 42-45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan output is seen at 48-50 lakh bags. Any adverse weather during the crop development stage could further tighten supply expectations.
Globally, lower cumin production in countries such as China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan is offering some structural support. However, weak global demand and cautious buying behaviour continue to cap India’s export momentum.
Outlook
Going forward, jeera prices are expected to remain at current levels next week. Comfortable carry-forward stocks and soft export demand may restrict upside on NCDEX, but delayed sowing, lower acreage, and quality concerns are likely to limit downside.
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