Nickel prices hold range amid policy tightening and supply-side developments

• Policy shift targets higher value-added nickel processing
• Vale Indonesia resumes phased mining operations

LME nickel prices averaged $17,825/t in the week ended 16 January, slightly up w-o-w from $17,800/t, supported by supply-side uncertainty. Meanwhile, LME-monitored inventories remained range-bound at 285,732 t, limiting upside momentum as ample stocks continue to cap sustained rallies.

Market updates

Indonesia tightens nickel smelter policy to boost value-added output

The Indonesian government has restricted permits for new nickel smelters that produce intermediate products such as nickel matte, NPI and MHP, aiming to channel investment toward higher value-added processing and strengthen downstream integration. Under the new regulation, developers must plan further in-country processing beyond intermediate goods, aligning with Indonesia’s broader strategy to capture more economic value from nickel production.

Vale Indonesia resumes operations following RKAB approval

PT Vale Indonesia has resumed full operations after receiving approval for its 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) from Indonesia’s Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry. The approval enables a phased restart of mining and construction activities across Sorowako, Pomalaa, and Bahodopi. The company is prioritising safety and regulatory compliance while advancing downstream projects, including HPAL development for the EV supply chain, supporting domestic refining and national revenue generation.

Ontario fast-tracks Crawford nickel project to strengthen critical minerals supply

Ontario has accelerated approvals for Canada Nickel Company’s $5 billion Crawford nickel project under its new “One Project, One Process” framework. Touted as the western world’s largest nickel development, the project is expected to operate for 41 years, supplying nickel, cobalt, and North America’s only domestic chromium. The move aims to shorten permitting timelines, boost domestic supply chains, and support stainless steel and EV markets.

Outlook

Nickel prices are expected to remain range-bound but volatile in the near term. While policy tightening in Indonesia and project developments support long-term supply discipline, ample exchange inventories and cautious downstream demand may continue to cap sharp upside. Market participants are closely monitoring regulatory clarity, project execution timelines, and demand signals from stainless steel and battery sectors.