South Africa: Non-coking coal exports rise y-o-y in CY’25; Dec’25 volumes edge up m-o-m

• Exports to India up 1% in CY’25, Pakistan logs 32% surge
• Weaker Indian, Pakistani buying limits Dec’25 rebound

South Africa’s non-coking coal exports increased by around 4.2% y-o-y to 65.92 million tonnes (mnt) in CY’25 from 63.26 mnt in CY’24. The rise reflected broader destination diversification and steady offtake from price-sensitive Asian and emerging markets, even as traditional East Asian demand softened.

India remained the largest buyer in both years, importing 30.84 mnt in CY’25, marginally (1%) higher than 30.56 mnt in CY’24, reinforcing its role as the primary demand anchor. Demand was underpinned by stronger downstream activity, with India’s sponge iron production rising 8% to 53.42 mnt during January-November 2025, compared with 49.42 mnt in the same period of CY’24, reflecting sustained growth in steel-linked consumption.

Pakistan saw a sharp 32% y-o-y rise to 5.15 mnt in CY’25 from 3.09 mnt, while Japan and Taiwan recorded lower volumes, highlighting weaker utility-led demand in North Asia. European and African destinations such as the Netherlands, Morocco, and the UAE contributed incremental growth, supporting overall export expansion.

Exports recover in Dec’25 despite weaker Indian intake

South Africa’s non-coking coal exports inched up by 2% m-o-m in December to 5.90 mnt, as countries such as Bangladesh, Mauritius, and Japan ramped up procurement. However, major buyers such as India, Pakistan, and China reduced their intake.

Indian procurement stayed selective in December, with imports falling by 24% m-o-m to 2.07 mnt. Indian buyers resisted firm South African offers amid ample domestic coal availability, though some cement producers increasingly preferred South African thermal coal over imported pet coke, as elevated international pet coke prices reduced its cost competitiveness. This fuel-switching behaviour provided underlying support to South African coal flows, even as spot buying remained cautious.

Outlook

South African non-coking coal exports are likely to remain stable in early 2026. Indian buying may recover gradually, but East Asian demand is expected to stay cautious. Export momentum will increasingly depend on smaller but consistent markets absorbing volumes, rather than a single large buyer driving growth.