LME copper prices rise 2.8% despite steady inventories

• Copper prices rose w-o-w without inventory draw support
• LME stocks stayed stable around 141,075 t

LME copper prices recorded significant week-on-week increase in early January, with the three-month contract rising 2.8% to $12,850/t on 9 January from $12,500/t on 2 January.

The price increase came despite LME copper stocks standing at 141,075 tonnes, a level that does not point to immediate supply tightness. Inventory levels remained largely unchanged over the week, with no major draws or inflows reported. This suggests that the price move was not driven by stock depletion but by trading activity and market structure.

Although headline stocks appear comfortable, a notable share of LME inventories remains concentrated in a limited number of warehouse locations. This concentration reduced the availability of metal for prompt delivery in some regions, lending support to nearby contracts. As a result, prices firmed even in the absence of a broad inventory decline.

Market structure showed limited but persistent firmness in nearby spreads. The front end of the curve held steady, discouraging aggressive short selling and encouraging short-covering by participants holding prompt exposure. This contributed to incremental upside in flat prices during the week.

Technical factors also played a role. Copper prices moved decisively above the $12,700/t level, which had previously acted as resistance. The break triggered momentum-based buying and stop-loss activity, pushing prices higher toward the end of the week. Trading volumes increased as prices approached $12,850/t, indicating active participation rather than thin-market movement.

Importantly, the price rise occurred without strong changes in fundamentals, underlining that the move was largely positioning-driven. With stocks at 141,075 t, the market does not signal shortage conditions, but neither does it reflect surplus pressure.

By the end of the week, copper prices appeared to stabilise near the higher range, suggesting consolidation rather than acceleration. Market participants are now closely monitoring whether stocks remain steady or begin to build, which would test the sustainability of current price levels.

Overall, the week-on-week rise in LME copper prices reflects a technically supported move in a balanced inventory environment, rather than a fundamental shift in supply conditions.