India: Copper scrap prices surge sharply tracking LME rally

• Spot liquidity dries up amid sudden volatility
• Market stability expected by early-mid January

Indian copper scrap and CCR prices jumped sharply on a d-o-d and w-o-w basis on 29 December, tracking a strong rally in London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures. However, spot market activity slowed as buyers and traders adopted a wait-and-watch approach following the sudden price spike.

Price assessments (ex-Delhi):

• Copper armature scrap was assessed at INR 1,100,000/t, up by 4.3% d-o-d and 8.7% w-o-w.
• Secondary continuously cast rods (CCR) were assessed at INR 1,150,000/t, increased by 3.8% d-o-d and 7.2% w-o-w.
• Primary CCR prices stood at INR 1,195,000/t, rose by 3.5% d-o-d and 5.3% w-o-w.

On the global front, LME copper prices surged to $ 12,830/t, up by $ 670/t (5.5%) d-o-d and $ 895/t w-o-w, providing strong cost-side support to domestic prices.

Market scenario

The sharp rise in prices was primarily driven by an unexpected surge in LME copper, which translated immediately into higher domestic assessments, particularly in the Delhi market. Market participants reported that the pace of the increase caught buyers off guard, leading to hesitation in closing fresh deals.

Several traders indicated that spot transactions were largely halted during the day, as buyers preferred to assess the sustainability of the LME rally before committing to higher-priced purchases. Some market participants described the sudden spike as artificial price manipulation, further reinforcing the cautious stance.

Despite the strong price momentum, actual trade volumes remained limited, with both buyers and sellers closely tracking LME movements before re-entering the market.

Outlook

The Indian copper scrap market is expected to remain volatile in the near term, with prices closely tracking LME cues. Market participants expect stability to return only after buyers regain confidence and trading activity normalises, likely by early to mid-January, once price discovery improves and the impact of the recent LME rally is fully absorbed.