- HRC and rebar prices decline marginally w-o-w
- Raw material prices show mixed trends
China’s steel prices edged down this week, following a decline in SHFE futures as end-user demand remained weak in the region. Domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) and rebar prices both declined marginally w-ow. Among raw materials, iron ore prices remained stable, billet prices declined and coking coal inched up slightly w-o-w.
The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) reported that total steel inventory at key Chinese enterprises reached 16.01 million tonnes (mnt) in mid-December 2025 (a 10-day period covering 11-20 December 2025), up by 1.26 mnt or 8.6% from 14.75 mnt in early-December (1-10 December).
1. Iron ore spot prices held firm w-o-w: Iron ore fines benchmark prices remained stable at $108/dmt CFR China on 26 Dec w-o-w, coupled with festive slowdown. Portside iron ore prices remained narrowly range-bound amid moderately healthy market liquidity, reflecting steady near-term sentiment. Buyers continued to favour Brazilian cargoes among available mid-grade fines. However, recent decline in steel inventories and improving production levels lent support to the market.
Iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports were recorded at 148.8 mnt on 25 December, surging by 3.29 mnt w-o-w, as per data published by SteelHome.
a) Spot pellet premium stable w-o-w: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellet remained firm at $17.8/t CFR China on 24 December.
b) Spot lump premium dipped w-o-w: Spot lump premium dropped by $0.01/dmtu w-o-w to $0.038/dmtu on 26 Dec.
2. China’s met coke market faces persistent weakness: China’s domestic metallurgical coke market remained weak as steel mills adopted cautious procurement amid subdued downstream demand; coking producers managed losses through flexible output, while supply cuts lagged demand slowdown, limiting near-term recovery.
Australian coking coal prices rose by $1/t w-o-w, with FOB assessments at $218/t, while BigMint Premium Hard Coking Coal (PHCC) index held stable at $238/t CNF Paradip on 26 Dec’25, reflecting steady demand and broader market trends.
3. Chinese billet prices inch down w-o-w: Chinese billet prices softened by RMB 10/t w-o-w to RMB 2,940/t ($420/t), while SHFE rebar ended the week marginally higher at RMB 3,078/t ($439/t), reflecting a broadly rangebound but weak market.
Early in the week, prices stayed largely flat amid thin trading, falling volumes, and cautious sentiment. A brief uptick on 22 December, supported by minor base price adjustments, failed to sustain as soft winter demand, slow exports, and uncertainty over export licensing continued to cap buying interest.
High raw material inventories and lower portside offers further pressured cost support. Overall sentiment remained cautious into year-end, with mills maintaining controlled output and adopting a wait-and-watch stance, limiting both upside momentum and sharp downside risk.
4. Domestic HRC prices edge down w-o-w: Domestic HRC prices in China declined slightly by RMB 40/t ($6/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,050/t ($435/t) on 26 December from RMB 3,090/t ($441/t) on 19 December, following a modest decline in SHFE HRC futures, which edged down by RMB 3/t ($1/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,271/t ($466/t) on 26 December from RMB 3,274/t ($467/t) a week earlier, as persistent weakness in end-user demand continued to weigh on the market.
However, China’s HRC export offers remained unchanged w-o-w at $465/t FOB on 26 December, as year-end holidays and subdued trading activity kept prices largely stable.
5. Rebar prices decline w-o-w: China’s rebar prices declined slightly by RMB 10/($1/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,110 ($444/t) from RMB 3,120 ($445/t) the previous week, following a decline in SHFE futures (January 2026 contract), which inched down by RMB 16/t ($2/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,100/t ($442/t) from RMB 3,116/t ($445/t) on 19 December amid modest demand in the region.
China’s Shagang Steel has rolled over its long steel prices for late-December 2025 sales, keeping levels unchanged since 11 September 2025. Prices of rebars, coiled rebars, and wire rods are as follows:
- Rebars (16-25 mm): RMB 3,450/t ($492/t)
- Coiled rebars (8-10 mm): RMB 3,560 ($507/t)
- Wire rods (6-10 mm): RMB 3,470/t ($494/t)
Outlook
China’s steel prices are expected to remain largely unchanged in the coming week, as weak end-user demand and off-season slowdowns continue to pressure HRC and rebar prices. Iron ore prices are steady, while coking coal has inched up slightly, and billet prices have softened amid cautious market sentiment. Rising steel inventories and modest downstream activity suggest limited price movement, with only minor fluctuations likely unless end-user demand improves.
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