- LME copper hits new record of $12,055/t
- Supply constraints, trade uncertainty underpin prices
LME copper prices crossed the $12,000/t mark on Tuesday, touching a fresh record in the final trading days of 2025. The three-month LME copper contract rose 1% to trade at $12,055/t, compared with $11,925/t in the previous session. Prices are now up around 36% so far this year, extending a strong upward trend.
The rally has been driven primarily by tight global supply conditions, with limited growth in mined copper output continuing to support prices. Market participants note that even under moderate global economic growth assumptions, copper is expected to remain in deficit over the near term, as supply struggles to keep pace.
Disruptions at several major mining operations during the year have further constrained output, reinforcing concerns over concentrate availability. These supply-side issues have kept the market sensitive to any operational setbacks, supporting elevated price levels.
Trade flow distortions linked to potential US tariff measures have also contributed to price strength. Earlier in the year, traders moved significant volumes of copper into the US to hedge against tariff risks, pushing US prices above LME levels. Inventories across exchanges outside the US remain relatively low, leaving limited room to absorb additional supply shocks.
Outlook
Looking ahead, market expectations remain mixed. Some participants project continued supply deficits into 2026, while others anticipate a more balanced market if supply normalises or trade flows reverse. A key risk factor remains policy clarity on US trade measures; if tariffs are not implemented, surplus stocks held in the US could re-enter global markets, easing price pressure.
For now, copper prices remain well supported, with the $12,000/t level acting as a key psychological threshold, while physical markets continue to monitor price sustainability at these elevated levels.
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