India: Trade-level HRC prices surge following mills’ price hikes

• Limited material arrivals from mills lead to supply-demand balance
• Trade remains need-based on cautious sentiment among buyers

Trade-level prices of hot-rolled coils (HRCs) in India surged w-o-w on 23 December to INR 47,500-49,900/tonne (t) ($530-557/t). Additionally, cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices rose sharply w-o-w to INR 55,100-57,000/t ($578-636/t).

BigMint’s benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRCs (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) rose by INR 1,800/t ($20/t) w-o-w to INR 48,300/t ($539/t) as assessed on Tuesday against INR 46,500/t ($519/t) on 16 December 2025. Similarly, CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm/CTL) prices increased by INR 900/t ($10/t) w-o-w to INR 54,900/t ($613/t) on 23 December 2025 against INR 54,000/t ($603/t) in the last week. These prices are ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.
Market updates

Indian HRC prices surged this week, in a sharp departure from the downward trajectory observed over the past few months. The steep rise was precipitated by list price hikes by major mills in mid-December. However, market activity was largely need-based, with buyers procuring cautiously as prices firmed up. Nonetheless, some buyers made purchases to hedge against further price hikes.

Moreover, the price hike was driven by rupee depreciation and a rise in coking coal costs. A weaker rupee improves export competitiveness by making Indian shipments cheaper in global markets, while also enhancing rupee realizations on dollar-linked sales, thereby supporting margins.

BigMint’s premium hard coking coal (PHCC) index was assessed at $231/t CNF Paradip on 23 December, up $3/t from the previous assessment on 16 December 2025. An eastern India–based mill booked 30,000 t of Australian PHCC at $238/t CNF India for Jan’26 loading. Another deal was reportedly concluded at $239/t CNF India, though it could not be confirmed at the time of publication.

Import volumes: India’s bulk imports of HRCs touched 211,350 t as of 19 December, based on vessel line-up data. Around 112,899 t of additional cargoes are expected by early-January.

Export volumes: India’s bulk exports of HRCs touched 219,573 t as of 19 December, and around 87,906 t of additional cargo are in transit.

Outlook

The near-term outlook for the Indian HRC market remains positive, supported by recent mill-led price hikes that have improved market sentiment. Moreover, market participants indicate that mills may be planning further price increases in the coming month, which could help sustain higher levels. As a result, prices are unlikely to soften in the coming week, though movements will also be largely dependent on demand response.