India: Pellet export index recovers by $3/t w-o-w amid selective deals; demand remains cautious

• Domestic-export prices realisation narrow w-o-w
• Few more active offers in the sea market

Indian pellet export prices in the seaborne market recovered by around $ 2-3/t in the week ended 17 December, supported by a few deals concluded by eastern coast-based sellers earlier in the week. The price improvement helped lift near-term sentiment, although overall demand conditions remain subdued.

Price update

BigMint’s India pellet (Fe 63%, 3-3.5% Al) export index increased by $2.5/tonne (t) w-o-w to $105/t FOB east coast on Wednesday. The pellet export prices recovered amid the recent deals concluded by the East Coast seller. A pellet producer recently sold around 75,000 tonnes of 62% Fe pellets at $ 116/t CFR China a couple of days ago. A few supplier offered their fresh cargo in the sea market, which is likely to be concluded in the near term.

Market movements

According to sources, this transaction provided a positive reference point for the market and encouraged some suppliers to re-offer their cargoes to overseas buyers. “The deal gave confidence to sellers that prices may have bottomed out in the near term,” an international trader told BigMint.

Several suppliers are currently offering pellet cargoes to international buyers; however, most negotiations are yet to translate into confirmed trades. Market participants said that while prices are slightly firmer compared to last week, buying interest remains selective. The marginal recovery is largely aligned with optimistic global iron ore price trends, which have offered some cost support to pellet exporters.

An exporter said, “Indian sellers’ asking prices are not very cost-effective for Chinese buyers at current steel margins.”

Despite this, demand fundamentals in China remain weak. Market sources informed that previously booked pellet cargoes are still lying unsold at Chinese ports, weighing on market sentiment. A market participant said, “Port inventories are high, and mills are in no hurry to buy fresh cargoes. Mills have slowed procurement amid sufficient stocks.”

Another supplier mentioned that discussions are ongoing with international traders, and a couple of shipments could be concluded in the near term if pricing expectations align. However, Chinese buyers are primarily seeking high-grade pellets at more competitive prices.

Domestic vs export market gap shrinks

Domestic prices exceeded export offers by around INR 750/t ($8/t), with the gap narrowing by INR 300/t w-o-w. Pellet (Fe63%) prices in Odisha’s Barbil were recorded at INR 8,200/t ($92/t) exw, fell INR 50/t to last weekend. Meanwhile, the ex-plant realisation in exports from Barbil rose by INR 250/t ($3/t) w-o-w to INR 7,450/t ($80/t) exw.

Rationale

• One (1) confirmed deals from India’s east coast were recorded in this publishing window for T1 trade. Thus, this category was allotted 50% weightage for today’s price calculations. Click here for the detailed methodology.
• Eleven (11) indicative prices were received, and nine (9) were considered for the calculation of the index and given a balance 50% weightage.

Factors impacting pellet exports

• Chinese iron ore fines prices stable w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines index remained unchanged w-o-w at $106/t CFR China on 16 December. Prices firm as fresh February-laycan mainstream fines resurfaced in the market, which improved buying. While wider discounts were expected in a weakening environment, the return of liquidity stood out after days of thin trade, supported by the availability of full-month and later laycan cargoes.
• DCE iron ore futures decline w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the January 2026 contract closed at RMB 768/t ($108/t) on 17 December, rising by RMB 10/t ($1/t) w-o-w.

Pellet inventories at major Chinese ports stood at 2.7 mnt on 11 December, and remained stable w-o-w as per data published by SteelHome.

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