South Africa: Non-coking coal exports dip slightly in Nov’25 as Asian demand eases

• Indian coal imports declined as buyers resisted firm South African offers
• East Asian demand weakened sharply with Japan and Taiwan absent

South Africa’s non-coking coal exports edged down to 5.78 mnt in November 2025 from 5.82 mnt in October, marking a marginal 1% decline. Shipments were broadly steady overall, but softer demand from major Asian buyers, along with selective procurement in India, capped export momentum despite firm seaborne prices and tight availability in some grades.

Indian demand moderates but remains dominant

India remained the largest buyer, though imports slipped to 2.49 mnt in November from 2.89 mnt in October, reflecting cautious buying amid high seaborne offers and rising freight. Indian buyers continued to resist elevated South African RB2/RB3 prices, even as some trades occurred at negotiated levels. Despite the monthly drop, India still contributed the bulk of total offtake.

Pakistan increased purchases to 0.70 mnt, up from 0.48 mnt, supported by stable industrial consumption. Bangladesh maintained steady buying at 0.12 mnt, while the UAE reduced intake to 0.13 mnt from 0.23 mnt.

East Asian demand weakens sharply

South Korean imports declined to 0.31 mnt from 0.52 mnt, aligning with subdued winter procurement and firm Atlantic-origin competition. Taiwan saw no cargoes this month after 0.17 mnt in October. Japan also registered no volumes after taking 0.15 mnt in October, signalling softer furnace demand.

Europe shows sporadic buying interest

European participation remained muted, with only the Netherlands receiving 0.10 mnt in November after zero volumes in October. Germany, which took 0.08 mnt in October, did not register any shipments this month.

Market overview

South African portside and seaborne prices stayed firm through November as North Asian utilities absorbed sizeable volumes, tightening prompt availability. This kept FOB levels steady even as Indian portside demand remained selective, with buyers resisting higher RB2/RB3 offers amid INR depreciation and rising freight. Some Indian ports witnessed firm trade sentiment, but overall procurement stayed cautious.

Outlook

Exports are likely to remain stable through December as Indian demand gradually picks up for early-2026 deliveries. However, weaker East Asian buying and continued bid–offer gaps in India may keep trade flows balanced. Firm seaborne benchmarks and limited South African availability could prevent any significant downside in prices, but buyers are expected to remain selective.