India: Bulk HRC imports fall by nearly 55% y-o-y in Nov’25 even as provisional safeguard duty expires

• Imports decline 34% m-o-m from high Oct’25 base
• Imports from FTA countries such as Korea and Japan drop

India’s bulk hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports in November 2025 totalled 260,212 tonnes (t), marking a sharp decline of 54% from an estimated 571,656 t in November 2024. Moreover, imports dropped by 34% compared to 391,856 t recorded in October which saw elevated shipments ahead of expected implementation of a key trade measure.

In November, South Korea, China, and Japan emerged as India’s top three bulk HRC exporters shipping 119,701 t, 491,85 t, and 43,138 t, respectively. Additionally, imports from South Korea fell by 49% y-o-y and shipments from China decreased by 70.71%, while those from Japan dropped by 56.12% over the same period.

The m-o-m decline in HRC imports reflects market caution following the expiry of the provisional 200-day safeguard duty on flat steel products on 7 November.

Key industry highlights

Final safeguard duty recommendation: India’s Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) has submitted its final findings, recommending a three-year staggered safeguard duty on imports of certain flat-rolled steel products (including HRC) starting at 12% in the first year, declining to 11.5% and 11% thereafter. The final implementation awaits the official gazette from the Ministry of Finance.

Temporary tariff expires: A temporary 12% tariff imposed in April 2025 on all steel imports, which ran for 200 days, expired in November adding complexity to the immediate trade landscape as the market awaits the formal notification of the new three-year safeguard measure.

Export volumes surge y-o-y

On the export front, India’s bulk HRC export volumes surged sharply by 136% y-o-y in November to 373,986 t compared to an estimated 158,596 t in November 2024. This marks a substantial rebound from last year driven by sustained global demand, particularly from the European Union (EU) ahead of the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

However, export volumes declined m-o-m by 16% compared to 442,393 t shipped in October. The high October volume was attributed to aggressive allocations and sustained bookings from the EU and the Middle East. Despite the monthly dip overall export activity remained on an uptrend compared to the previous year supported by favourable global steel market sentiments and India’s growing focus on FTA-backed trade routes.

Outlook

The near-term outlook is highly dependent on the Ministry of Finance’s decision regarding the DGTR’s recommended three-year safeguard duty on flat steel. If implemented, the measure is expected to provide significant relief and price leverage to Indian steelmakers by curbing low-cost imports, especially those benefiting from FTAs without sufficient value addition. While this will protect the domestic industry it may raise input costs for downstream sectors like automotive and construction.