India: HRC export index for EU steady as mills fully exhaust quarterly quota

• HRC offers to Middle East stay stable
• Export offers to China also remain steady

BigMint’s Indian hot-rolled coil (HRC, S275) export index for the European Union (EU) remained unchanged on 2 December at $520/t FOB main port, with no fresh offers emerging as India’s export quota for the October-December quarter has already been exhausted.

Similarly, the Indian HRC (SAE 1006) export index for the Middle East also held steady on Tuesday, with activity muted amid weak regional demand due to the National Day holidays on 1 and 2 December 2025.

1. HRC offers to EU stay stable w-o-w: Indian HRC export offers to the EU remained steady at $570/t CFR Antwerp w-o-w on Tuesday. Mills have largely stepped back from making fresh offers after fully exhausting their allocated quota for the October-December quarter.

The European domestic steel demand remains subdued as buyers hold sufficient inventories and continue to approach new bookings cautiously. Prices have nonetheless remained firm, supported by ongoing lingering uncertainty surrounding CBAM and safeguard measures, which has further undermined buying confidence.

2. HRC offers to Middle East remain stable w-o-w: Indian HRC export offers to the Middle East remained unchanged w-o-w at $500/t CFR UAE, with no fresh offers emerging as trading activity slowed and demand weakened due to the National Day holidays in the region on 1-2 December. Similarly, Chinese HRC offers to the Middle East also remained stable w-o-w at $480/t CFR UAE.

Indian HRC export volumes to UAE stood at 44,538 t in November 2025, rose sharply by 34,538 t m-o-m as compared to 10,000 t a month ago.

HRC futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) January 2026 contracts inched up by 0.6% w-o-w to RMB 3,325/t ($470/t) as on 2 December 2025.

3. HRC offers to Vietnam: Indian HRC export offers to Vietnam stood at $480/t CFR Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) on Tuesday, with buying interest remaining soft amid weak domestic demand due to ongoing extreme weather conditions in the region.

Indian HRC export volumes to Vietnam stood at 75,000 t, representing a drop of 45,519 t against 120,519 t in October 2025.

Outlook

In the near term, Indian HRC export offers are expected to remain stable. With the quarterly quota now fully exhausted, fresh shipments to Europe are likely to stay limited, keeping the supply tight in the region.

In the Middle East, the ongoing National Day holiday has further slowed export activity, adding to the quiet market tone. Overall, Indian shipments are expected to remain subdued until global steel demand strongly picks up.