- Hot-rolled imports from Indonesia surge by over 200% m-o-m
- Oct’25 exports mark second-lowest level this year, after Feb’25
SteelDaily: China’s stainless steel trade flows weakened in October 2025, with both imports and exports recording notable declines. The slump was driven by policy changes in key partner countries, softer regional demand, and a correction in domestic stainless steel prices after a firm Q3 performance. Prices retreated through October, as both domestic and overseas demand softened, reducing overall trade volumes.
Imports remain weak despite mild m-o-m uptick
China imported 124,100 t of stainless steel in October, up 3.2% m-o-m, but still down 21.6% y-o-y, extending the multi-month downward trend.
Cumulative imports for January-October 2025 stood at 1.262 million tonnes (mnt), falling 21.4% y-o-y, reflecting persistent weakness in inbound stainless flows.
Indonesia dominates supply despite shrinking volumes
China’s stainless steel imports in October remained heavily concentrated among Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea, which together accounted for over 91% of total arrivals, underscoring a continued structural dependency. Indonesia retained its position as the dominant supplier with 103,300 t in October, up 7.9% m-o-m but down 21.6% y-o-y, while cumulative January-October volumes dropped 24.5% to 1,017,100 t. Within the product mix, hot-rolled imports from Indonesia surged more than 200% m-o-m, even as slab inflows declined sharply.
Exports show sharper decline, hit second-lowest level in CY’25
On the export front, China recorded a sharper decline than on the import side. Stainless steel exports fell 14.4% m-o-m and 14.2% y-o-y to 358,100 t in October, marking one of the lowest monthly levels of 2025 outside February. The downturn, visible since early Q4, reflects weakening overseas demand amid rising trade barriers and softer buying interest across major destinations.
Cold-rolled exports see largest decline
Cold-rolled stainless steel (≥600 mm width) saw the steepest correction, with exports dropping by 24,000 t m-o-m. Nevertheless, cumulative exports for January-October 2025 still reached 4.1409 mnt, up 0.7% y-o-y, maintaining a modest growth trend for the year.
China’s net stainless steel exports eased by 21.5% m-o-m and 9.7% y-o-y in October to 234,000 t. However, cumulative net exports for January-October rose 14.8% to 2.8788 mnt, reaffirming China’s strong net export position in 2025.
Regionally, exports declined across most major destinations. Shipments to Russia fell 39.9% m-o-m, while exports to Japan dropped sharply by 61.6% m-o-m. Southeast Asia — China’s largest stainless steel export market — also saw a 6.7% m-o-m decline to 107,000 t in October. However, cumulative volumes reached 1.1539 mnt, an 18.1% y-o-y increase, keeping the region as the key driver of export growth.
Outlook
The stainless steel market is expected to remain under pressure in the near term as domestic demand cools after the Q3 peak, export markets continue to face macroeconomic headwinds, and supply-side adjustments in Indonesia affect China’s import mix, with regional buyers also delaying procurement amid price volatility. Still, resilient export momentum in Southeast Asia and stabilising domestic prices may help limit further downside in overall trade activity.
Note: This article has been published in accordance with a content exchange agreement between SteelDaily and BigMint.
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