- Steel mills expected to push for coke price cuts this week
- Tight steel margins, ample stocks keep mills on sidelines
Mysteel Global: China’s coking coal prices continued to lose steam on 21 November, as trading sentiment nosedived amid a bearish outlook for downstream markets and expectations of weaker end-user affordability.
The national composite coking coal price under Mysteel’s assessment lost another RMB 5.6/tonne ($0.8/t) d-o-d to RMB 1,378.8/t, including 13% VAT, on Friday. The same day, trading activity in the auction market plummeted again, with only 91,000 t of coking coal successfully sold, and the failure ratio jumped to 62.7% from Thursday’s 45.9%, according to Mysteel’s tracking data.
This demonstrated that traders’ speculative buys — previously contributing over half of auction transactions — largely died down on the final working day of last week, as negative signs spelt more market risks in the days ahead. Notably, steel mills are expected to demand reductions in their purchasing prices of domestic metallurgical coke this week, which could be a direct drag on coking coal prices, Mysteel learned.
Despite slight improvements, many steelmakers and coke producers still suffered losses on their product sales, indicating that they may continue to adopt a cautious approach towards coking coal purchases. Their adequate coal stockpiles will also allow them to postpone new procurement, according to market sources.
The pessimistic mood also hammered the coking coal futures market, with the most-traded coking coal contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange for January 2026 delivery closing Friday’s daytime trading session at RMB 1,103/t, lower by 1.82% d-o-d.
In the spot coking coal market, more miners cut prices to facilitate transactions and avert stock build-ups. For example, in North China’s Shanxi province, 11 deals were concluded lower by RMB 2-208/t on Friday, compared with 9 deals with decreases the previous day. In Wuhai city, North China’s Inner Mongolia, 5 trades for washed fat coal were done lower by RMB 50-70/t, Mysteel’s survey showed.
Coking coal production generally remained stable across China’s major mining hubs, with many miners reporting notable inventory rises last week. This has changed the previous scenario where supply shortages could underpin coal prices, leading downstream demand to re-dominate the market direction, a market observer said.
While some premium coking coal prices still stood flat, prices of other loosely supplied coal varieties may continue their downward corrections in the near term until market supply and demand return to balance again, a Shanghai-based analyst said.
Note: This article has been written in accordance with a content exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and BigMint.
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