India: Pellet export index rebounds by $3/t w-o-w as Chinese iron ore prices firm up

• Hike in Chinese fines prices boosts pellet export offers
• Trade remains limited as sellers focus on domestic market

Indian pellet export prices rebounded this week, supported by a slight improvement in Chinese iron ore prices. However, Indian exporters limited trading activity in the seaborne segment, as most suppliers continued to prioritise the domestic market, where realisations were higher.

Price update

BigMint’s India pellet (Fe 63%, 3-3.5% Al) export index surged by $3/tonne (t) w-o-w to $102.5/t FOB east coast on 19 November against 12 November.

Only a couple of Indian pellet producers floated firm export offers this week, but the higher asking prices led buyers to delay deal confirmations. Market participants indicated that some export deals were closed at $115-117/t CFR China, although these have not been confirmed by sellers.

Market movements

An international trader informed BigMint, “There is interest from a few buyers, but the numbers are not matching yet. Sellers are cautious.”

Port-based pellet plants remained the primary suppliers offering cargo in the export market, while inland producers continued to secure better margins from domestic buyers. Seaborne market sentiment improved slightly, with increased trading activity in the Chinese iron ore market. Benchmark iron ore prices also climbed up. However, higher Chinese port inventories and lower cost-effectiveness of pellets kept demand soft  overall.

Another trader remarked, “Chinese mills are not aggressively booking Indian pellets right now. With high port stocks and competitive domestic options, their buying appetite is limited.”

Bid-offer disparities continued to persist, preventing deal closures. Sources commented, “The price gap is wide. Until sellers revise their offers or buyers raise their bids, shipments will remain unsold.”

Meanwhile, a few suppliers are closely tracking the OMC iron ore auction scheduled today, as raw material costs may influence future pellet export offers. Overall, pellet producers are currently getting healthy domestic margins and steady inquiries, prompting them to stay committed to local buyers.

Domestic vs export market gap increases

Domestic prices exceeded export offers by around INR 1,250/t ($14/t), with the gap decreasing by INR 150/t ($2/t) w-o-w. Pellet (Fe63%) prices in Odisha’s Barbil were recorded at INR 8,300/t ($94/t) exw, firm compared to last weekend. Meanwhile, the ex-plant realisation in exports from Barbil rose by INR 250/t ($3/t) w-o-w to INR 7,050/t ($80/t) exw.

Rationale

• No (0) confirmed deals from India’s east coast were recorded in this publishing window for T1 trade. Thus, this category was allotted zero % weightage for today’s price calculations. Click here for the detailed methodology.
• Ten (10) indicative prices were received, and eight (8) were considered for the calculation of the index and given the balance 100% weightage.

Factors impacting pellet exports

• Chinese iron ore fines prices rise w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines index rose $3/t w-o-w to $105/t CFR China on 18 November. Prices were firm due to improved macroeconomic sentiment ahead of China’s December 2025 Politburo meeting, which boosted expectations of supportive fiscal policies. Stronger finished steel trades and slight optimism regarding an increase in mills’ iron ore procurement also supported prices, even as physical market liquidity remained thin and mill margins tight.
• DCE iron ore futures up w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the January 2026 contract closed at RMB 791.5/t ($111/t) on 19 November, edging up by RMB 17/t ($2/t)  w-o-w.

Pellet inventories at major Chinese ports stood at 2.25 mnt on 13 November, inching up by 0.25 mnt w-o-w as per data published by SteelHome.

Outlook