- EAF share in China projected to reach 56% by 2045
- Crude steel output seen falling to 616-731 mnt by 2060
Mysteel Global: As China advances towards its carbon peaking and neutrality goals, the country’s steelmaking landscape — currently dominated by the blast-furnace (BF) route — is set to diversify, with electric-arc-furnace (EAF) production poised to play a far greater role, according to Shangguan Fangqin, director of the Green and Intelligent Steel Technology Center at the China Iron and Steel Research Institute Group (CISRI).
Speaking at the National Steel Scrap Conference 2025 hosted by Mysteel in South China’s Haikou on 11 November, Shangguan outlined that China’s steel industry will evolve towards three main production routes.
In the future, the traditional BF route will phase out, retaining only large, efficient furnaces for high-end steel plate production, mainly concentrated in coastal regions and near key mining areas.
Meanwhile, 100% steel scrap-based EAFs will replace smaller BFs to produce rebar and wire rod near cities, while limited hydrogen-based EAFs will make special steels with relatively smaller capacities.
“Currently, EAFs account for less than 10% of China’s total steel output,” Shangguan noted. “By 2035, that share is expected to reach around 28%, and by 2045 it could expand to about 56%, making EAFs the dominant steelmaking process.”
This structural transition will depend heavily on the availability and distribution of steel scrap within China. For EAFs to grow, a larger portion of the country’s scrap resources will need to be directed to EAF producers, Shangguan emphasised.
At present, the BF route consumes roughly 70% of all steel scrap used by China’s steel industry, while EAFs account for the remaining 30%, according to the CISRI data.
Looking ahead, Shangguan also projected that China’s total crude steel production will decline significantly in the coming years, as national per capita steel consumption falls in line with economic restructuring and slower infrastructure growth.
By 2030, China’s annual crude steel output is expected to drop to between 922-948 million tonnes (mnt) — down 8.2-10.8% from the 2023 level. By 2060, the steel output could fall further to between 616-731 mnt, according to the CISRI estimates.
Note: This article has been written in accordance with a content exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and BigMint.
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