LME base metals futures inch down d-o-d; India’s manufacturing PMI surges in Oct’25

• Codelco reduces 2025 copper production guidance
• European demand, EV growth support copper outlook

Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) inched down d-o-d, with copper decreasing by 1.76% to $10,664/tonne (t). Meanwhile, inventories at LME-registered warehouses registered mixed movements, with lead recording the highest decline of 1.97%.

Domestic market overview

In India’s non-ferrous metals markets, BigMint assessed copper armature scrap at INR 880,000/t ex-Delhi, down by INR 7,000/t d-o-d. Aluminium Tense scrap prices were assessed at INR 19o,000/t ex-Delhi, stable d-o-d, and at INR 185,000/t ex-Chennai, down by INR 1,000/t d-o-d.

Other market updates

India’s manufacturing PMI surges in Oct’25 on strong domestic demand

India’s manufacturing activity strengthened in October, with the PMI rising to 59.2 from 57.7 in September, signalling robust expansion. The surge was driven by solid domestic demand, GST relief measures, productivity gains, and higher tech investments. Purchasing and inventory levels grew sharply, while job creation continued for the 20th month. Input costs eased, but output prices rose as firms passed on higher expenses to consumers.

Codelco trims 2025 copper output guidance despite higher year-to-date production

Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, has revised down its 2025 output forecast amid operational challenges, even as production rose in the first nine months of the year. The miner now expects slightly lower output than earlier projected but still above last year’s levels. Despite the adjustment, Codelco reaffirmed its goal of reaching 1.7 million tonnes (mnt) of annual copper production by 2030, supported by progress at the Ministro Hales and Rajo Inca projects.

Copper prices dip amid Chinese slowdown, European demand lends support

Copper prices declined as weak manufacturing data from China and a stronger US dollar dampened sentiment. However, improving European demand, rising vehicle and electric vehicle sales, and supply constraints at major mines are expected to support prices in the near term, keeping the overall trend positive despite short-term weakness.