- CISA reports mid-October inventory rise
- Crude steel output down by 4.6% y-o-y
China’s steel market saw a slight uptick this week, with modest increase in futures. Domestic prices of hot-rolled coils (HRCs) and rebars rose marginally. Notably, raw material prices also displayed a mild price correction w-o-w, with iron ore tags, billet tags showing firmness while coking coal prices edged up.
The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) has announced that the total steel inventory at key Chinese enterprises in mid-October 2025 stood at 16.58 million tonnes (mnt), representing an increase of 700,000 tonnes (t) or 4.4% as compared to 15.88 mnt in early-October. Moreover, inventory levels rose by 1.29 mnt or 8.4% from 15.29 mnt against early-September. Meanwhile, inventories increased by 1.15 mnt or 7.5% compared to 15.46 mnt last year.
China’s crude steel production in September 2025 stood at 73.49 million tonnes (mnt), down by 4.6% y-o-y as compared to 77.07 mnt last year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
1. Iron ore spot prices stable w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines spot prices remained firm at $105/dmt CFR China on 24 Oct. Activity remained decent with trades confined to mid-grade fines with lower post holiday momentum amid subdued buying. Mill margin was kept thin throughout the week, with most grades trading at higher levels.
Iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports recorded at 133.6 mnt on 23 Oct, increasing 0.2 mnt w-o-w as per data published by SteelHome.
a) Spot pellet premium edge up w-o-w: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellet rose by $0.5 to $18.75/t CFR China on 22 Oct.
b) Spot lump premium edge down w-o-w: Spot lump premium fell by $0.01 to $0.1280/dmtu on 24 Oct.
2. Coking coal prices edge up w-o-w: Australian premium HCC rose by $3/t w-o-w to $192/t FOB, driven by improved Chinese steel mills demand. Meanwhile, China’s met coke market remained balanced, supported by tight supply and restocking needs, despite weak steel demand and higher coal costs squeezing margins and delaying the second price hike.
BigMint’s premium hard coking coal (PHCC) index rose by $1/t w-o-w to $207/t CNF Paradip, India, on 24 October 2025. Although trade inquiries stayed limited, stronger Chinese buying indications pushed up FOB Australia offers, driving a global increase in coking coal prices.
3. Billet prices see minor correction: China’s billet prices remain range-bound at RMB 2,930/t ($411/t), while SHFE Jan’26 rebar inched up by RMB 21/t ($3/t) to RMB 3,058/t ($429/t). The market remained sluggish, with weak rebar sales and subdued export activity weighing on sentiment.
Mills continued to face pressure from tight margins, with some reducing liquid iron output and planning blast furnace maintenance to balance supply. Despite minor destocking, inventories stayed high, while iron ore prices softened on fresh supply inflows. Coke prices, however, gained RMB 50-55/t, lending limited support to mill margins. Prices may stay rangebound next week, moving within RMB 40-50/t, as muted trading and weak downstream demand persist.
4. Domestic HRC prices inch up w-o-w: China’s domestic HRC offers inched up by RMB 10/t ($1/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,070/t ($431/t) as compared to RMB 3,060/t ($430/t) a week ago, driven by a slight uptick in SHFE futures. SHFE HRC futures (January 2026 contract) edged up by RMB 33/t ($5/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,252/t ($457/t) on 24 October from RMB 3,219/t ($452/t) on 17 October 2025.
However, China’s HRC export offers decreased by $5/t w-o-w to $460/t FOB against $465/t a week ago.
5. Domestic rebar prices rise slightly w-o-w: China’s rebar prices were at RMB 3,100/t ($435/t), marginally up by RMB 10/t ($1/t) w-o-w from RMB 3,090/t ($434/t), following an uptick in SHFE futures. SHFE rebar futures (January 2026 contract) saw a slight rise w-o-w by RMB 7/t ($1/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,053/t ($429/t) on 24 October as of 3,046/t ($428/t) on 17 October 2025. The rising raw material costs supported rebar prices, but weak demand limited modest gains.
Moreover, China’s Shagang Steel rolled over long steel prices for late-October sales. Prices of rebars, coiled rebars and wire rods are as follows:
- Rebars (16-25 mm): RMB 3,450/t ($484/t)
- Coiled rebars (8-10 mm): RMB 3,560/t ($500/t)
- Wire rods (6-10 mm): RMB 3,470/t ($487/t)
Outlook
The Chinese market continues to face pressure from persistent oversupply, with prices likely to remain soft unless mills reduce output amid lackluster demand. However, considering the recent firm trend in raw material prices, cost support has strengthened, leaving limited room for a further sharp decline in steel prices.
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