- Rising domestic flats prices drive up export tags of US scrap
- Weak Turkish rebar export market limits sharp price gains
US ferrous scrap export prices rose by $2/tonne (t) w-o-w, supported by further increases in domestic flat-rolled steel. This follows a week in which October settlements declined across most grades.
Additionally, US scrap dealers expressed optimism that the recent rise in scrap export prices to Turkiye could bolster the domestic market in November if the upward trend persists.
However, cautiousness also prevailed, especially regarding Turkish market activity. A market participant stated, “Things will probably stay this way for the next two months, and I do not see anything moving — scrap or steel prices — during this period.”
FOB assessments (US East Coast, bulk)
- HMS 80:20 – $323/t, up by $2/t w-o-w
- Shredded – $343/t, up by $2/t w-o-w
In October 2025, the RMDAS ferrous scrap index, tracking US mill and foundry spot prices, saw declines across all grades: shredded dropped $11/t m-o-m to $370/t, prompt industrial composite fell $24/t m-o-m to $401/t, and HMS eased $1/t m-o-m to $336/t.
Turkish market updates
Mills showed selective interest in securing US cargoes amid weak long steel demand and narrow profit margins. Trading activity was limited, yet US-origin material remained part of ongoing procurement for late-November and early-December shipments.
Market sentiment for Turkish rebar exports also improved following the latest Gaza ceasefire agreement, amid expectations that reconstruction efforts could begin soon.
However, some participants noted that demand for Asia-origin billets remained weak amid the struggling Turkish export market. “There is not much demand for Chinese billets. Prices are strong, but our exports are very poor,” said a Turkish mill source.
Weak long steel demand may also impact scrap prices. “With no consistent export market in Turkiye, mills cannot push scrap prices higher,” added a recycler.
Participants expect gradual improvement as sentiment strengthens and construction-related demand potentially revives.
US-origin HMS 80:20, bulk – CFR assessments
- Turkiye – down by $3/t w-o-w at $351/t.
- Vietnam – up by $5/t w-o-w at $347/t.
- Bangladesh – up by $4/t w-o-w at $353/t.
Outlook
US ferrous scrap export prices are expected to remain firm in the near term, supported by steady freights and improving sentiment in key importing markets Turkiye and Bangladesh. However, the potential upside may remain limited in the absence of a significant recovery in Turkish long steel demand.
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