- Trade-level BF rebar prices fall by INR 200/t w-o-w
- HRC, CRC prices continue to show downward trend
- Inventory pressure weighs on mills amid muted trades
Morning Brief: BigMint’s flagship India steel composite index, a barometer of the domestic steel market, edged down by 0.9% w-o-w, as assessed on 17 October 2025. The continued downtrend, with steel prices dropping to multi-year lows, points to the combined impact of an extended monsoon, festive slowdown and inventory pressure in the domestic market.
While the finished flat steel index fell by 0.7% w-o-w, the longs index declined more sharply – by 1.1%. In fact, the slowdown in the steel market showed no signs of abating in October, with the composite index declining by around 2 percentage points since the first week.
Highlights of price movements
TMT bar prices edge down: India’s trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices declined w-o-w across markets. The major primary mills either offered discounts or reduced list prices last week due to subdued sentiment. Buying activity was weak across regions ahead of Diwali.
Trade-level BF rebar prices edged down by INR 200/tonne (t) ($2/t) w-o-w to INR 46,900/t ($533/t) exy-Mumbai on 17 October. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%.
In the projects segment, prices were in the range of INR 46,000-47,000/t ($523-535/t) FOR Mumbai. Market activity was subdued as buyers continued to adopt a wait-and-watch approach.
On the other hand, IF rebar prices witnessed a decline in the range of INR 100-900/t across regions as trading slowed ahead of Diwali. Cautious buying and need-based purchases resulted in subdued market sentiment. Industry participants are expecting market sentiment to turn slightly positive post-Diwali, supported by the resumption of construction projects and an expected recovery in buying interest.
Flat steel price downtrend lingers: HRC market Trade-level prices of hot-rolled coils (HRCs) in India showed a downtrend w-o-w. BigMint’s bi-weekly assessment for HRC (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) decreased by INR 300/t ($3/t) w-o-w to INR 48,000/t ($541/t) on 14 October against INR 48,300/t ($544/t) on 7 October.
CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm/CTL) prices inched down by INR 200/t ($2/t) to INR 55,500/t ($625/t) early last week against INR 55,700/t ($627/t) the week prior. These prices are ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.
Notably, the leading manufacturers had decreased HRC and CRC prices by INR 750-1,500/t ($8-17/t) in early October as compared to the list prices of early-September. However, from the net sales prices of end-September, prices were raised by INR 500/t ($6/t) for October.
Steel distributor sources informed about low demand, with fewer inquiries and deals being closed. Trade is slow because of festive season slowdown. Market participants believe activity will pick up after the festival, with the current week expected to see muted trades.
Outlook
The expected pre-festive demand recovery in early October has been sluggish, with buyers remaining cautious due to high inventory levels and muted trading sentiment. The hike in construction steel prices by the Tier-1 mills failed to extend much support to the trade market. Despite over 8% growth in consumption, rapid expansion in production and capacity is weighing on prices.
The domestic market is waiting for a trend reversal after Diwali, with expectations that a strong rebound in demand after the festive season will prop up steel prices. However, any sharp uptick appears unlikely.
Leave a Reply