- Mild price correction seen over past 2 days
- Indian suppliers float only few export offers
The Indian pellet export market remained firm following the conclusion of the week-long Chinese National Day holiday (1-8 October). However, prices witnessed a slight decline in the past couple of days as international market sentiment weakened amid a fall in Chinese iron ore indices.
Price update
BigMint’s India pellet (Fe 63%, 3-3.5% Al) export index rose by $2.5/tonne (t) w-o-w to $106/t FOB east coast on 15 October 2025 against 10 October. The pellet prices were firm amid the active Chinese demand and lack of suppliers in the seaborne market.
An India-based pellet-maker recently concluded an export deal for 120,000 t of pellets (Fe 64%). One export deal was heard at $119/t CFR China for end-October loading. However, no other offers were heard in the market.
Market movements
Market participants reported that the availability of export offers from Indian suppliers remained limited this week. A pellet supplier informed: “We are currently prioritizing our domestic commitments for bulk deals and have held back from offering in the export market. Some of our coastal shipments are being redirected to domestic buyers due to healthy local demand.”
Another key supplier shared a similar view, adding that only a few players are actively participating in the export market. “Owing to steady domestic demand and better realizations within India, most producers are focusing on fulfilling local orders. We did hear that a central India-based seller managed to close two export shipments recently at decent price levels,” he said.
Meanwhile, international traders reported that China’s iron ore market has seen a sharp price correction over the past few days, putting downward pressure on global pellet offers. A trader said, “The correction in Chinese iron ore futures and spot prices is influencing sentiment globally. Pellet prices are adjusting accordingly.”
Market participants believe that fresh export tenders from Indian pellet producers are likely to emerge only after the Diwali festival, once domestic market clarity improves. Until then, prices are expected to remain range-bound with limited deal activity.
A market participant commented, “Given the current sentiment, we don’t expect major export deals to be concluded in the near term, indicating a cautious market outlook for the coming weeks.”
Domestic vs export market gap narrows
Domestic prices exceeded export offers by around INR 850/t ($9.5/t) despite the rise in export prices. Pellet (Fe63%) prices in Odisha’s Barbil were recorded at INR 8,150/t ($93/t) exw, falling by INR 50/t ($0.5/t) compared to last weekend. Meanwhile, the ex-plant realisation in exports from Barbil was firm w-o-w at INR 7,250/t ($83/t) exw.
Rationale
- One (1) confirmed deals from India’s east coast were recorded in this publishing window for T1 trade. Thus, this category was taken into consideration for today’s price calculations and accorded 50% weightage in the index calculation. Click here for the detailed methodology.
- Nine (9) indicative prices were received, and six (6) were considered for the calculation of the index and given 50% weightage.
Factors impacting pellet exports
Chinese iron ore fines prices up w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines index rose $2/t w-o-w at $106/t CFR China on 14 October. Trading activity strengthened, particularly in blend fines. There were limited discounted blend fines available, which caused prices to rise due to market sentiment. With limited trading occurring over the compensatory working weekend in China, mills conducted more trades, which helped support iron ore prices.
DCE iron ore futures down today: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the May 2025 contract closed at RMB 776.5/t ($109/t) on 15 October, down RMB 4/t d-o-d.
Outlook
According to BigMint’s analysis, the coming weeks are expected to see a dull pellet export market amid the lack of offers in the market.
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