Australia: Rio Tinto’s iron ore production remains stable, sales edge up by 6% q-o-q in Q3CY’25

• Active demand from China helps keep output firm
• CY’25 production guidance remains at 323-338 mnt

Rio Tinto’s iron ore output from its Pilbara operations in Western Australia stood at 84.1 million tonnes (mnt) in Q3CY’25, firm q-o-q against 83.7 mnt in Q2CY’25. This was driven by strong restocking demand from China before the Golden Week holidays and the upcoming construction season. Y-o-Y, output remained mostly stable compared to Q3CY’24. Meanwhile, sales increased 6% q-o-q while remaining stable y-o-y.

Production momentum remains healthy

The Pilbara operations achieved their highest third-quarter production since 2019, demonstrating a complete recovery from the severe weather events experienced earlier this year. Combined shipments from major iron ore producers remained unchanged y-o-y during the quarter. In contrast, supply from non-major producers increased by approximately 6% q-o-q, suggesting improved stability across the supply chain.

Meanwhile, Rio Tinto’s Simandou high-grade iron ore project in Guinea remains on track for its first shipment in November, via the WCS port, as SimFer’s dedicated port continues construction. The project is expected to ramp up to full capacity over the next 30 months, with temporary crushers currently in operation and permanent crushing units scheduled for completion by H2FY’26. The SimFer port is progressing ahead of schedule, with trans-shipment vessels under construction at Chinese yards.

On the demand side, China’s crude steel output grew by an estimated 4% y-o-y (1% q-o-q) in Q3, supported by healthy mill margins and improved downstream activity.

All figures mentioned are on 100% basis, which means that the shipments include material transported from the Pilbara mines to the portside trading facility in China, which may not be sold onward by the group during the same period.

Shipments increase amid demand surge

Rio Tinto’s Pilbara shipments reached 84.3 mnt (100% basis) in Q3CY’25, up 5.5% q-o-q amid active demand while remaining largely stable y-o-y. Shipments are expected to remain at the lower end of guidance after 13 mnt of cyclone-related losses in Q1, with the company roughly half on track for recovery. A strong Q4 performance will be crucial, as the system remains tightly balanced with limited capacity to absorb further disruptions.

Guidance remains unchanged 

The miner has kept its CY’25 production guidance at 323-338 mnt but expects output to lean toward the lower end after a softer Q1. Shipments will be affected by the weather, and progress in Pilbara depends on timely approvals for new mining areas. With limited capacity to handle additional weather delays, any further disruptions could impact overall performance.