- Steel prices rise slightly, market remains cautious
- Iron ore prices rise after Golden Week holidays
China’s steel market witnessed a mild uptick this week post golden week holidays. Domestic steel product prices, including billet, hot-rolled coil (HRC) and rebar, rose slightly w-o-w. Similarly, in the raw materials segment, iron ore and coking coal prices saw a slight uptick
1. Iron ore spot prices rise post holiday: The benchmark iron ore fines spot prices increased by $3/t to $107/dmt CFR China on 10 Oct as against 30 Sep. The market picked up pace as activity resumed after China’s Golden Week. Steel mills sought to protect margins, boosting demand for medium and low-grade fines. Port prices rose on post-holiday restocking, despite lingering uncertainty. Prices strengthened across physical and paper markets, with trading expected to stabilise next week.
Iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports recorded at 132.65 mnt on 9 Oct, remaining largely stable as per data published by SteelHome.
a) Spot pellet premium remains stable: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellet stayed flat at $19.2/t CFR China on 8 Oct against pre-holiday period.
b) Spot lump premium dips: Spot lump premium fell by $0.003 to $0.1465/dmtu on 10 October.
2.Coking coal prices edge up w-o-w: Ahead of the National Day holiday, Chinese steel mills accepted the first coke price hike, raising wet and dry-quenching coke by RMB 50-55/t ($7-8/t) and top-charging coke by RMB 70-75/t ($10-11/t) from 1 October, supported by higher feed coal costs and stable blast furnace operations. This improved producer margins amid steady post-holiday expectations. Meanwhile, Australian premium HCC prices rose $2/t w-o-w to $192/t FOB.
3. Billet prices edge up slightly w-o-w: In Tangshan, China, billet prices inched up by RMB 20/t ($3/t) w-o-w to RMB 2,970/t ($417/t) on 10 Oct from RMB 2,950/t ($414/t) on Sept 30. Similarly, SHFE Jan’26 rebar rose RMB 31/t ($5/t) to RMB 3,103/t ($436/t) over the same period.
Despite the marginal price recovery after the Golden Week holidays, the market remains subdued, weighed down by weak domestic demand, high inventories, and limited export activity.
Mills have reduced output to manage supply pressure, while exporters offered $5/t lower prices to offset sluggish overseas buying amid northern port congestion.
4.Domestic HRC prices edge up slightly: China’s HRC offers edged up marginally by RMB 10/t ($1/t) to RMB 3,160/t ($443/t) on 10 October against RMB 3,150/t ($442/t) on 30 September following the slight rise in SHFE futures. SHFE HRC futures (January 2025 contract) inched up by RMB 16/t ($2/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,290/t ($462/t) on 10 October against RMB 3,274/t ($460/t) on 30 September.
However, Chinese HRC export offers stayed firm at $470/t over the same period. Trading was sluggish over the extended holiday. Most Chinese mills are keeping quotations steady to gauge post-holiday market sentiment and transaction activity, with new prices expected next week.
5.Domestic rebar prices decline: China’s rebar declined by RMB 50/t ($7/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,170/t ($445/t) against RMB 3,220/t ($452/t), a week ago. However, SHFE rebar futures (January 2025 contract) stood at RMB 3,107/t ($435/t) on 10 October, increased slightly by RMB 17/t ($2/t) as compared to RMB 3,090/t ($433/t) on 30 September. Additionally, rebar demand is expected to decline seasonally as the peak construction period concludes in October.
Outlook
Chinese steel prices may remain volatile post-holidays and inventory pressure keeps prices soft in the very short term. However, focus is on China’s upcoming 4th Plenum and potential policy easing, which could boost confidence. Overall, the market is expected to remain stable next week, with limited upward or downward movement.
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