- Global aluminium supply tight due to Guinea mining crisis
- Copper market expected to enter deficit in 2026
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) remained rangebound d-o-d, with nickel increasing by 0.90% to $15,350/tonne (t). Meanwhile, inventories at LME-registered warehouses registered divergent movements d-o-d, with nickel recording the highest gain of 0.43%.
Domestic market overview
In India’s non-ferrous metals markets, BigMint assessed copper armature scrap at INR 895,000/t ex-Delhi, up by INR 5,000/t d-o-d. Aluminium Tense scrap prices were assessed at INR 191,000/t ex-Delhi, down by INR 1,000/t and at INR 192,000/t ex-Chennai, unchanged d-o-d.
Other market updates
Oil prices ease as Gaza ceasefire reduces geopolitical risks
Oil prices declined after Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of a ceasefire plan, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and cooling the risk premium that had supported crude markets. The pullback was further pressured by a stronger US dollar, making dollar-denominated oil costlier for holders of other currencies. Analysts noted that the truce is unlikely to immediately impact Middle East oil supply, as OPEC+ production still lags behind targets. Meanwhile, US petroleum product demand reached its highest level since late 2022, though global indicators pointed to a softer start to October amid slower trade and transport activity across major economies.
Aluminium rises to 16-month high on LME gains, tightening supply
Aluminium prices climbed to a 16-month high, supported by strength in LME prices, falling on-warrant inventories, and tightening global supply conditions. LME inventories dropped 15% over the past month, reflecting robust physical demand and supply disruptions, including Guinea’s mining crisis that threatens ore supplies to major producers. China’s production remains capped, while global primary output rose modestly, leaving a supply deficit for the first seven months of 2025. Market support also comes from macro factors such as US rate cuts and a weaker dollar.
Slower production growth to push copper market into deficit
The ICSG expects the global refined copper market to enter a 150,000-ton deficit in 2026, down from earlier surplus forecasts, due to slower production growth and recent mine disruptions in Indonesia, Chile, and Congo. While output is set to rise in 2026 with ramp-ups in key regions, refined production growth will slow, and global consumption, led by China, is projected to increase moderately, with demand in Europe and Japan remaining subdued.
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