- Benchmark HRC prices drop INR 600/t w-o-w
- Rebar sees mixed trends, IF steel market under pressure
- HRC export index falls, new EU import rules to hit mills hard
Morning Brief: BigMint’s India steel composite index, a barometer of the domestic steel market, continued to hover at nearly 5-year lows in the first week of October 2025 due to several factors, but mainly an extended monsoon and its impact on economic activities, particularly construction and infrastructure, the domestic festive season and weak global sentiments.
The composite index edged down by 0.2% w-o-w. In a trend reversal, the longs composite index declined 0.2% w-o-w compared with the 0.4% drop in the flats index. Despite the decline in steel imports in August, September volumes edged up notwithstanding the fact that trade remedial measures are in place. Higher imports in September weighed on domestic flat steel prices.
Highlights of price movements
HRC prices under pressure: BigMint’s benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRC (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) fell by INR 600/t ($7/t) w-o-w to INR 48,500/t ($546/t) on 30 September against INR 49,100/t ($553/t) on 23 September. CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm/CTL) prices inched down by INR 100/t ($1/t) w-o-w to INR 55,900/t ($629/t) on Tuesday against INR 56,000/t ($630/t) a week ago. These prices are ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.
The Indian market continued to face sluggish conditions, with buying limited to immediate requirements. A source informed BigMint: “Pricing remains uncertain, and the market is waiting for mills’ monthly price announcements to gain clearer direction.”
Distributors, on the other hand, are prioritising steady sales flow, choosing to close deals quickly to avoid losing customers, Moreover, the Durga Puja weighed on trade activity, especially in the eastern part of the country.
HRC export index dips: BigMint’s India hot-rolled coil (HRC, SAE 1006) export index for the Middle East and Vietnam fell by $10/t w-o-w to $490/t as of $500/t last week. A deal was heard concluded for October to the Middle East, indicating improved demand in the region.
While some sectors may be experiencing a slowdown, significant government-backed construction initiatives are still driving demand for steel products in key areas of the region. That said, the EU’s current safeguard mechanism will be phased out next year and if 50% tariffs on imports are imposed, as reports indicate, Indian sellers will be hit hard.
Rebar market displays mixed sentiments: Trade-level BF rebar prices, on the other hand, rose by INR 400/t ($5/t) w-o-w to INR 47,200/t ($532/t) exy-Mumbai on 3 October. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%. In the projects segment, prices hovered between INR 45,500-46,500/t ($512-524/t) FOR Mumbai.
Trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices rose w-o-w across major markets. Prices witnessed an uptick amid market optimism and expectations of an imminent hike by the major primary mills for October.
However, the induction furnace route steel rebar market remained sluggish as festivals and heavy rainfall slowed down trading, causing inventories to build up over 12 days. Now, with the monsoon season likely to end and construction activities expected to restart, industry participants believe that prices will improve in the near term. On a weekly basis, rebar prices declined in the range of INR 200-1,100/t across regions.
Outlook
The domestic steel market is currently in a wait-and-watch mode and market participants are waiting for upcoming price announcements by the Tier-1 mills. Demand is likely to re-surface only after clarity emerges on mill pricing, with buying decisions hinging on how end-user consumption unfolds during and after the Diwali holidays.
The much-apprehended export duty on iron ore has not yet been implemented. An export duty at this point, when prices are languishing, will be an additional blow. Otherwise, however, steel prices are expected to stage a recovery of sorts during the festive season.
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