- Australian shipments rise on steady vessels, strong port throughput
- South African export rebound offsets weak Indonesian shipments
Global seaborne coal exports rose 2.9% w-o-w to 20.06 million tonnes (mnt) in week 39 (20-26 September 2025) from 19.54 mnt in week 38, according to BigMint’s vessel line-up data. The increase was driven by higher shipments from Australia, South Africa, the US, and Colombia, which offset a decline in Indonesian flows and softer Canadian volumes.
The rebound reflected improved port throughput in Australia, opportunistic fixtures from South Africa, and steady buying support for US and Colombian cargoes. However, muted Indonesian shipments highlighted softer Pacific basin demand, while subdued Canadian flows underscored vulnerability to operational fluctuations. Elevated freight levels on South Africa and Australia routes also influenced supply chains, with Indian buyers staying selective in procurement.
Country-wise trends
Indonesia: Coal exports from Indonesia fell 11.1% w-o-w to 6.97 mnt in week 39 from 7.88 mnt in week 38, as weaker vessel activity and muted industrial demand weighed on flows. Loadings were led by Taboneo (1.28 mnt), Bunati (1.02 mnt), and Samarinda (0.83 mnt), but volumes remained below recent weekly averages. Market participants noted that logistical fluidity was not a major constraint, but lack of stronger buying interest capped shipments.
On the demand side, India’s intake held steady at 2.12 mnt, supported by selective stocking at utilities. However, Chinese offtake slipped to 1.75 mnt, with higher landed costs and cautious restocking dampening appetite. Overall, while steady Indian procurement lent some support, softer Chinese demand and limited regional buying kept Indonesian exports on the lower side during the week.
Australia: Coal shipments from Australia rose 6.4% w-o-w to 8.37 mnt in week 39 from 7.86 mnt in week 38, driven by smoother port scheduling and steady vessel arrivals. Loadings were led by Newcastle (3.76 mnt), DBCT (1.61 mnt), and Gladstone (1.38 mnt), underscoring stable operational performance across key terminals.
On the demand side, Japan (2.50 mnt) and China (1.83 mnt) continued to anchor flows. Market sources highlighted that the outlook for Australian shipments will depend on port reliability and sustained intake from Asian utilities, particularly as Indian demand shows little sign of recovery in the near term.
United States: Coal exports from the United States rose 17% w-o-w to 1.29 mnt in week 39 from 1.10 mnt in week 38, supported by improved fixture activity and steady port throughput. Loadings were led by Norfolk (0.46 mnt), Baltimore (0.34 mnt), Mobile (0.28 mnt), and New Orleans (0.20 mnt), reflecting broader participation across major terminals.
On the demand side, Brazil emerged as the largest buyer with 0.39 mnt, followed by The Netherlands (0.31 mnt) and India (0.24 mnt). While Indian utility procurement lent some support, buying remained cautious due to elevated freight costs and selective industrial demand. Market participants noted that despite the weekly rebound, overall US export momentum continues to be capped by freight economics and muted appetite in both European and Asian markets.
South Africa: Coal shipments from South Africa rebounded 58.5% w-o-w to 1.60 mnt in week 39 from 1.01 mnt in week 38, with all volumes routed through RBCT. The sharp increase was supported by opportunistic fixtures and firmer Indian interest, with 0.80 mnt lifted during the week. Improved vessel availability also aided flows, allowing exporters to capitalize on favourable freight economics despite underlying operational challenges.
Market participants noted that while the rebound underscores strong near-term demand on the South Africa-India route, recurring rail bottlenecks and port inefficiencies continue to constrain long-term reliability. As a result, shipment momentum is expected to remain volatile, with volumes heavily dependent on short-term freight sentiment and vessel positioning.
Colombia: Colombian coal exports rose 23% w-o-w to 1.05 mnt in Week 39 from 0.85 mnt in week 38, marking a recovery after the previous week’s decline. Loadings were led by Puerto Nuevo (0.69 mnt) and Puerto Bolivar (0.26 mnt), supported by selective buying interest from both European and Asian markets.
On the demand side, South Korea (0.18 mnt) and The Netherlands (0.12 mnt) featured among the key destinations, alongside smaller flows to other regional buyers. Market participants noted that opportunistic demand and favorable short-term freight economics aided the rebound. However, overall volumes remain volatile as muted European procurement and cautious industrial demand continue to weigh on Colombia’s export consistency.
Canada: Coal exports from Canada edged down 7.1% w-o-w to 0.78 mnt in week 39 from 0.83 mnt in week 38, reflecting a modest pullback after the previous week’s strong flows. Shipments were led by Vancouver (0.29 mnt), Prince Rupert (0.25 mnt), and Roberts Bank (0.24 mnt), underscoring balanced activity across major terminals.
On the demand side, Japan remained the largest buyer at 0.31 mnt, followed by South Korea at 0.25 mnt. Market participants emphasized that operational reliability continues to be the decisive factor shaping the consistency of Canada’s coal export performance.
Freight trends: Dry bulk coal freights showed a mixed trend this week. Rates on Indonesia-India routes softened amid subdued Pacific basin activity, while Australia-India and South Africa-India lanes remained firm on tighter vessel supply and stronger owner sentiment.
The elevated freight environment provided partial support for South African and Australian shipments but kept Indian buyers cautious, limiting demand on Pacific cargoes and weighing on Indonesian flows.
Outlook
Global coal exports are expected to remain range-bound in the near term. Australian shipments should hold steady on consistent port throughput, while Indonesian exports may stay under pressure amid muted Indian demand. South African volumes hinge on rail and port reliability, though freight strength could lend near-term support.
US and Colombian flows may continue to benefit from selective buying, but Canadian exports remain exposed to operational disruptions. With freight sentiment mixed and Indian buyers resisting higher landed costs, trade momentum is likely to stay cautious into early October.
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