- Iron ore gains on hopes of firmer downstream demand
- Shagang Steel cuts its rebar prices by RMB 100/t ($14/t)
China’s steel market displayed a mixed performance this week, with Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) prices showing mixed trends. Notably, domestic prices for hot-rolled coil (HRC) remained unchanged for the week, while rebar and billet prices saw a weekly increase. In the raw materials segment, spot iron ore and coking coal prices increased over the week.
China’s steel exports for August 2025 were marginally up by 0.1% to 9.51 million tonnes (mnt) as compared to 9.49 mnt in August 2024, as per the General Administration of Customs.
1.Iron ore spot prices rise w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines spot price inched up by $1/t w-o-w to $106/dmt CFR China on 12 Sep. Prices gained on expectations of firmer downstream demand, relief from softer coking coal costs, and optimism around possible US rate cuts. Portside values also inched up, lifted by sentiment, prospects of higher molten iron output after sintering cuts, and support from speculative restocking.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports rose by 1.11 mnt w-o-w to 131.63 mnt on 11 September, as per SteelHome data.
a) Spot pellet premium increases w-o-w: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellet remain unchanged w-o-w at $19.4/t CFR China on 10 Sep.
b) Spot lump premium rises w-o-w: Spot lump premium edged down marginally w-o-w to $0.1840/dmtu on 12 Sep.
2. Coking coal prices up slightly w-o-w: China’s coke market turned sharply bearish after 8 September, with Shandong Quasi Grade I prices falling around RMB 50-55/t ($7-8/t) to RMB 1,445-1,695/t amid weak steel demand, limited mill procurement, and rising costs, while Australian premium HCC rose slightly to $187/t FOB.
3. Billet prices up by $3/t w-o-w: Tangshan billet ended the week at RMB 3,010/t ($423/t), up RMB 20/t ($4/t) from last Friday’s RMB 2,990/t ($419/t). SHFE Jan’26 rebar closed at RMB 3,127/t ($439/t), down RMB 16/t ($1/t) from RMB 3,143/t ($440/t) a week earlier.
The week saw mixed sentiment: billet traded in a narrow RMB 2,990–3,010/t range, while rebar drifted lower midweek before recovering on Friday. Raw materials were volatile — iron ore held near RMB 800/t ($112/t), coke softened after repeated cuts, and EAF losses widened to a 13-month high. Inventories climbed for a seventh week, keeping overall demand sluggish, though late-week local billet sales offered some support. Exports stayed steady despite mills raising offers.
4. Domestic HRC prices remain stable w-o-w: China’s domestic HRC remained stable w-o-w at RMB 3,180/t ($447/t), this stability in prices can be attributed to lack of a strong seasonal uptick in demand which kept HRC prices from staging a sustainable and significant rebound. SHFE HRC futures (January 2026 contract) stood at RMB 3,341/t ($469/t) on 12 September 2025, up by RMB 21/t ($3/t) w-o-w as compared to RMB 3,320/t ($466/t) on 5 September.
China’s HRC export offers rose by $5/t w-o-w to $480/t from $475/t last week.
Baosteel, China’s leading steel producer, has rolled over hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices for Oct’25 sales after increasing the prices for Sept’25 sales. Additionally, hot-dip galvanized product prices also remained unchanged. This stability comes amid mixed trends in SHFE HRC futures, influenced by weak domestic steel demand.
5. Domestic rebar prices increase w-o-w: China’s rebar prices increased by RMB 30/t ($4/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,250/t ($456/t) against RMB 3,230/t ($454/t) previous week. SHFE rebar futures (January 2026 contract) dropped by RMB 19/t ($3/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,107/t ($436/t) on 12 September from RMB 3,126/t ($439/t) on 5 September. Domestic rebar prices dipped marginally amid seller-driven destocking efforts.
China’s Shagang Steel has cut its rebar prices by RMB 100/t ($14/t). While prices for wire rod and coiled bars have been decreased by RMB 150/t ($21/t) for mid-September sales, as per sources. Prices of rebars, coiled rebars, and wire rods were as follows:
- Rebars (16-25 mm): RMB 3,450/t ($484/t)
- Coiled rebars (8-10 mm): RMB 3,560/t ($500/t)
- Wire rods (6-10 mm): RMB 3,470/t ($487/t)
Outlook
In near term Chinese steel prices are poised for a slight rise. The anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts and a strengthening RMB are expected to support commodity prices. As China enters its traditional peak demand season in the latter half of September, a potential recovery in demand and a decrease in inventory levels could provide further upward momentum.
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