- CBAM, potential safeguard measures keep EU buyers wary
- Middle East sees muted trade amid soaring temperatures
BigMint’s India hot-rolled coil (HRC, S275) export index for Europe dropped by $5/tonne (t) w-o-w to $550/t FOB main port, amid cautious market sentiments. Trade activity remained slow, as buyers stayed on the sidelines due to risks associated with the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and potential new safeguard measures.
Meanwhile, India’s HRC (SAE1006) export index for the Middle East remained range-bound w-o-w at $510-515/t FOB main port. The market continued to face competitive pricing pressure from China, influencing trade dynamics in the region.
1. Indian HRC export offers to EU drop w-o-w: Imported HRC offers from India to EU dropped by $5/t w-o-w to $600-605/t CFR Antwerp ($550-555/t FOB India). However, trade activity remained slow, as market participants returned from summer holidays.
European buyers were hesitant to commit to new purchases, which kept the market sluggish despite recent domestic price increases. Many considered these price gains unsustainable, as there was no significant rebound in demand. Buyers also held back from sourcing imports, even though supply was limited, due to the uncertainty surrounding CBAM and potential new safeguard measures.
2. Chinese HRC prices to Middle East decline: Chinese HRC export offers to the Middle East declined by $5/t w-o-w to $505/t CFR UAE against $510/t following the Victory Day Parade holiday. However, demand in the Middle East remained slow due to hot weather conditions in the UAE.
Moreover, Indian HRC export offers to the region remained range-bound, at around $530-540/t CFR UAE, amid muted trade activities.
3. Chinese HRC offers to Vietnam decrease w-o-w: Chinese HRC export offers to Vietnam decreased by $5-10/t w-o-w to $490-495/t as compared to $500-505/t CFR. However, demand in Vietnam showed signs of recovery, primarily driven by increased domestic consumption and significant government-led infrastructure and construction projects.
HRC futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) (January 2026 contracts) rose by RMB 39/t ($5/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,355/t ($471/t) as compared to RMB 3,316/t ($466/t) a week ago. Moreover, on a d-o-d basis, contracts increased by RMB 20/t ($3/t).
Outlook
The near-term outlook for Indian HRC exports appears cautious. Demand from the EU is expected to remain sluggish due to buyer hesitancy over safeguard measures. Competitive pressure from Chinese exports, particularly in the Middle East and Vietnam, will continue to influence pricing.
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