- Trump grants tariff exemptions on nickel, key relief
- Stronger US dollar pressures global nickel pricing
Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) dipped w-o-w, with the three-month contract closing at $15,280/tonne (t) from last week’s $15,380/t. LME nickel stocks increased by 3% at 215,418 t against 209,544 t a week earlier.
Prices initially rose due to Indonesian supply concerns from protests but fell as the situation stabilised. Weak downstream demand and increased domestic inventories influenced premiums, which declined. A rebound in the US dollar index and broader greenback strength directly pressured nickel prices.
Market updates
Trump grants tariff exemptions for nickel, relief to key trade partners
US President Donald Trump signed an executive order granting tariff exemptions on over 45 import categories, including nickel, gold, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals, to trading partners who strike reciprocal trade deals with the US. This policy aims to encourage framework agreements to reduce tariffs imposed by national security rules. Exemptions will take effect from Monday, benefiting key nickel imports crucial for stainless steel and electric vehicle battery production, while aligning tariffs with existing US trade commitments.
High-grade NPI prices steady, with seasonal upside expected
The average price of 10-12% high-grade nickel pig iron (NPI) stood at RMB 944.5 /t ($137/t), up RMB 1/t from the previous day. Market sentiment rose slightly during the peak season, and downstream consumption improved, boosting spot transaction prices. Both upstream and downstream buy-sell interest grew, indicating potential price gains for high-grade NPI this month amid stronger seasonal demand and market optimism.
Rising nickel, chromium prices renew stainless steel scrap demand
Amid rising prices of nickel and chromium, stainless steel scrap is regaining economic appeal. In east China, 304 stainless steel scrap prices held steady at RMB 9,700-9,800/t ($1,359-1,373/t) this week. Stainless steel production costs using scrap are now slightly lower than those using high-grade NPI, supporting scrap demand. As inventories fall during the peak season, mills are raising prices cautiously. Elevated nickel and chrome costs are expected to drive higher stainless production, reinforcing the steady demand for stainless steel scrap in the near term.
Nickel market faces upward pressure in Q3 amid tight supply
Nickel prices remain firm in Q3CY’25, buoyed by elevated raw material costs and strong demand, particularly from the auto and battery sectors. Tight spot availability from maintenance shutdowns and active restocking continue to support prices, while international oversupply limits upside. Conversion between nickel sulphate and refined nickel remains unprofitable, further restricting additional market supply. Overall, nickel’s outlook is steady to bullish pending any major supply or demand shifts.
Outlook
Auxiliary material prices for nickel production are expected to remain stable next week, while Indonesian nickel ore may register a slight decline amid market dynamics. Rising high-NPI prices could offer marginal support to smelters’ profit margins. However, with upcoming US economic data influencing sentiment, nickel is forecast to trade cautiously in the RMB 121,000-125,000/t ($16,962-17,522/t) range.
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