India: Mixed pricing signals seen in rebar market in early-Sept’25

• Some mills hike prices while others keep tags unchanged
• Property sales drop in August, cautious sentiment prevails

Some of the leading primary mills have increased rebar prices by INR 1,000/tonne (t) ($11/t) for early-September 2025 deliveries as against prices prevailing in end-August, sources informed BigMint. Meanwhile, some mills have rolled over their prices over last prevailing prices. Post-revision, list prices stood at INR 47,500-48,500/t ($538-549/t) on landed basis. It should be noted that mills had offered discounts/rebates to augment sales last month.

Trade-level BF rebar prices remained stable w-o-w at INR 47,300/t ($536/t) exy-Mumbai, as per BigMint’s assessment on 5 September. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%. Demand remained sluggish in the trade channel last month, as heavy monsoons and waterlogging disrupted logistics and hampered market activity.

In the projects segment, prices opened at INR 46,000-47,000/t ($521-532/t) FOR Mumbai basis.

Rebar inventories with Tier-1 mills remained largely unchanged m-o-m in early September compared to early August, as slow domestic demand during the monsoon and festive holidays weighed on market sentiment, sources informed.

Update on projects

• NCC received two Water Division orders worth INR 788.34 Crore (excluding GST) in August 2025 from state government agencies, with no related-party involvement, in the normal course of business.

Factors influencing market dynamics

1. IF-rebar prices down m-o-m: Induction furnace (IF) rebar prices in key Indian markets witnessed a gradual decline in August amid subdued demand and monsoon-led disruptions. Demand remained largely need-based, with limited buying interest during the festive season. Manufacturers reduced list prices and offered discounts to clear inventory, which averaged 10 to 12 days across regions. IF rebar prices remained stable w-o-w at INR 44,800/t ($507/t) exw-Mumbai.

The BF-IF rebar price gap stood at around INR 2,500-3,000/t ($28-34/t) in Mumbai. IF rebars hold a dominant 65-70% market share in India.

2. Raw material prices show mixed trends w-o-w: BigMint’s Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index remained stable w-o-w at INR 5,500/t ($62/t) ex-mines on 30 August 2025.

Indian iron ore prices in Odisha remained firm this week, supported by tight material availability and limited offers from miners. Miners highlighted that monsoon-related operational disruptions tightened supply available for the merchant market, while a weak steel sector exerted pressure on prices.

Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices edged down by $2/t w-o-w to $204/t CNF Paradip.

3. Property registrations drop m-o-m: Property registrations in Mumbai, the country’s largest real estate market declined m-o-m by 9% to 11,230 units in August as against 12,366 units in July, as per data released by Knight Frank India. On y-o-y basis, the same was down by 4% from 11,735 units in August 2024.

During the first eight months of CY’25, property registrations witnessed a rise of 2% y-o-y to 98,096 units as against 96,123 units seen in the same period last year.

Outlook
Trade-level BF-rebar prices may remain range-bound amid slow buying activities and weak market sentiments in the near term.