- LME inventories remain near four-year highs
- Indonesian ore prices slip, premiums hold firm
Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed positive movements from last week, with the three-month contract closing at $15,161/tonne (t). LME nickel stocks remained range-bound at 211,662 t from 212,232 t a week earlier.
On 11 August, nickel prices hit a two-week high, last seen on 25 July, supported by expectations of a US Fed rate cut and stronger stainless steel demand in China. Gains came despite a firm dollar and LME inventories at a four-year high. Prices are expected to stay range-bound in the near term.
Nickel becomes Indonesia’s top export, surpassing coal
Nickel has overtaken coal as Indonesia’s leading export earner, reflecting the nation’s growing influence in the global battery metal market. In early 2025, nickel export revenues hit $16.5 billion, outpacing coal’s $14.4 billion. The shift underscores surging demand for nickel amid energy transition trends, boosted by robust investments in domestic processing and global battery manufacturing.
Eagle Mine pilots innovation to boost nickel recovery
Eagle Mine, the only active US nickel producer, is testing Allonnia’s D-Solve technology to remove magnesium impurities and improve nickel concentrate quality. This innovation could increase nickel grade, reduce waste, and extend the mine’s life, supporting a sustainable domestic nickel supply and reinforcing positive market sentiment around nickel production advancements.
Indonesian nickel market maintains cautious optimism
Indonesian nickel ore prices fell slightly, while premiums stayed steady. Improved mining conditions may boost production, but smelters still face tight margins. New annual quota approvals, starting October 2025, could impact supply. Hydrometallurgical ore prices remained stable amid oversupply, and high-nickel pig iron prices rose on strong cost support. Rising auxiliary material costs limited smelter profits, keeping the market cautiously optimistic amid shifting demand and policy changes.
Indonesia’s nickel product exports soared to a record $33.9 billion in 2024, driven by the government’s ore export ban and focus on developing downstream processing industries. Since the ban’s 2020 implementation, the country has shifted from exporting raw materials to producing high value-added nickel products. This strategy has reshaped the global supply chain and strengthened Indonesia’s position in the electric vehicle sector, leveraging its 43% share of global nickel reserves.
Outlook
In the near term, nickel prices are likely to stay range-bound amid balanced supply-demand conditions, ongoing policy shifts, and cautious market sentiment.
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