China: Stainless steel output in Aug’25 likely to slip below earlier forecast

• Output estimated to rise 0.6% m-o-m, decline 3.9% y-o-y
• Weak demand, maintenance shutdowns pressure volumes

SteelDaily: China’s crude stainless steel production in August 2025 is estimated at 3.23 million tonnes (mnt). This marks a 0.6% rise from July but a 3.9% drop compared to August 2024, reflecting the combined effects of routine maintenance shutdowns, production cuts at select mills, and sluggish demand conditions.

The latest estimate falls short of the earlier forecast of 3.3 mnt, pointing to tighter supply conditions than initially expected.

Production by series

• 200 series: Estimated at 967,000 t, up 2.76% m-o-m but down 5.49% y-o-y amid softer downstream demand from consumer goods and kitchenware sectors.
• 300 series: Output of 1,698,300 t, essentially flat from last month (+0.01%) but up 0.73% y-o-y, indicating stable demand from construction and industrial applications.
• 400 series: Estimated at 564,500 t, down 1.26% m-o-m and sharply lower by 13.14% y-o-y, largely due to weaker orders from automotive and appliance manufacturing.

The y-o-y slowdown in August, despite a slight m-o-m rebound, underscores that stainless steel producers continue to exercise strict supply discipline. This measured output approach reflects a combination of factors, including subdued domestic and export orders, rising raw material and energy costs, and the impact of both scheduled maintenance and unexpected production outages at certain mills.

The sharper y-o-y drop in the 400 series suggests a notable weakness in sourcing high-temperature resistant and ferritic grades, while the steadiness in 300 series production signals some resilience in heavy manufacturing demand.

Outlook

Output is expected to recover in Q4CY’25 as mills ramp up post-maintenance and gear up for the peak consumption season. However, the current shortfall could support stainless steel prices in the near term and may have ripple effects on nickel demand across Asia, given China’s dominant role in the global stainless steel market.

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