- Trading remains subdued in seaborne market
- Heavy monsoon rains lead to ore shortages for exporters
India’s iron ore export market remained largely stable this week even as subdued trading activity persisted and market sentiments stayed muted. According to market participants, no fresh deals were concluded in the past week, with exporters primarily focused on dispatching cargoes from previously booked deals.
Prices, deals
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index remained stable w-o-w at $64/t FOB east coast on 7 August. Some deals were under negotiation this week, as per data with BigMint; however, no confirmed deal was concluded by Indian iron ore exporters.
Trade activity remained subdued over the past few days as market participants grappled with negative price fluctuations in the seaborne market. Exporters informed that a price correction of around $4-5/t has led to a cautious approach, with many buyers adopting a wait-and-watch stance.
Fe 57% fines were offered at a 17-19% discount, with trades under negotiation.
Notably, Australian miners narrowed the low-grade special fines discount to 10.75% for August delivery compared to 11% in July.
Market scenario
An eastern India-based exporter said, “The current domestic shortage of iron ore due to heavy monsoon disruptions has significantly affected export sentiments. Suppliers are struggling to procure sufficient cargoes for exports.”
With monsoon rains hampering mining and dispatch activities, domestic prices have surged, making export operations less viable. Exporters who do have cargo ready are holding back in anticipation of a potential price rebound.
Another exporter mentioned, “Only a handful of cargoes have been offered in the seaborne market this week. Exporters are cautious and waiting for the right time to negotiate better deals.”
On the other hand, Chinese steel mills are maintaining a conservative approach. Most of the current buying activity is centered around medium-grade fines, with mills seeking cost-effective options. The mills are procuring on a need basis as raw material inventories are currently adequate.
Despite the slow pace, exporters remain optimistic. Market sources believe prices will stay firm in the near term, and a few export deals could materialise if demand picks up; otherwise same market sentiments may continue in the coming weeks. Overall, the Indian iron ore export market is in a wait-and-watch mode, with participants closely tracking both domestic supply conditions and global price trends.
Chinese spot prices stable w-o-w: Benchmark iron ore fines prices in China remained stable w-o-w at $101/t CFR on 6 August. Active trading kept iron ore prices steady, though weak downstream demand in China limited gains. Firm mill margins drove need-based buying of high-grade fines, especially in Tangshan, with demand supported by their cost-effectiveness ahead of holiday restocking.
DCE iron ore futures firm w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the September 2025 contract rose by RMB 11.5/t ($1.5/t) w-o-w to RMB 790.5/t ($110/t) on 7 August.
Rationale
- No deal for Fe 57% was recorded during this publishing window, and was not taken for price calculation. Therefore, T1 trade was given 0% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received fourteen (14) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and twelve (12) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 100% weightage.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports remained under pressure at 130.1 mnt on 7 August, as per SteelHome data.
Outlook
As per BigMint’s analysis, Indian export prices are expected to remain rangebound in the near term as suppliers are struggling to secure available materials for exports, and deals may remain under pressure.
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