- Longs prices may hover near 5-month peak
- HRCs may be range-bound amid firm offers
Mysteel Global: Below is the brief near-term outlook for five key steel products Mysteel shares on a weekly basis, drawing upon the results of related surveys and communication with Chinese market participants.
Rebar & wire rod: Prices of these two major long steel items are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range during the week of 28 July-1 August, as market optimism and firm raw materials costs may continue supporting prices, though subdued demand may limit further upward momentum.
As of 25 July, China’s national price of HRB400E 20mm dia rebar, for example, jumped by RMB 152/tonne (t) ($21.2/t) w-o-w to hit a five-month high of RMB 3,471/t, including the 13% VAT, according to Mysteel’s assessment.
Hot-rolled coil: HRC prices are projected to remain range-bound during the week till 1 August. Inventory pressure in the near term is mild, while replenishment costs for end-users remain high amid recent price increases. Traders, supported by resilient costs and speculative opportunities, are holding firm on their offers.
HRC inventories held by traders in 33 cities under Mysteel’s tracking stood at 2.67 million tonnes (mnt) as of 24 July, edging up 0.6% w-o-w, but the volume was lower by 20.1% y-o-y.
Cold-rolled coil: CRC prices are projected to fluctuate slightly in the week through 1 August. Production is expected to remain largely steady, while end-user demand may stay sluggish.
“There is more speculative buying in the market than the actual procurement from end-users, driven by bullish sentiment following the rally in ferrous futures,” noted a Shanghai-based analyst.
Medium plate: Prices of medium plates are estimated to be narrowly volatile during 28 July-1 August. A North China-based market source predicted that medium plate output will stay elevated, with no major producers planning large-scale maintenance in the short term. Meanwhile, seasonal demand remains tepid, keeping procurement volumes low.
Output of medium plates among the 37 steel mills Mysteel monitors nationwide increased for the sixth consecutive week, by 0.4% or 6,800 t w-o-w to 1.65 mnt over 17-23 July.
Sections: Section prices may strengthen slightly amid overall market stability this week, supported by steady raw materials prices and positive market sentiment. Some section steel producers resumed operations last week, while only a few mills suspended production for maintenance.
Note: This article has been written in accordance with a content exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and BigMint.
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