- Coking coal price edged up
- Domestic rebar prices rise
China’s steel market witnessed a sharp price surge this week amid rise in Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). Moreover, market sentiments was further lifted by expectations of tighter steel supply and large-scale project investments.
Domestic steel product prices, including billet, hot-rolled coil (HRC) and rebar, surged w-o-w. Moreover, in the raw material segment, iron ore prices and coking coal prices climbed on a w-o-w basis.
The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) has announced that the total steel inventory at key Chinese enterprises in mid-July 2025 stood at 15.66 million tonnes (mnt), up by 580,000 tonnes (t) or 3.9% as compared to 15.07 mnt in early-July 2025.
1. Iron ore spot prices increase w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines spot prices inched up by $3/t w-o-w to $103/dmt CFR China on 25 July driven by positive macroeconomic sentiment, including news of a hydropower initiative and steady buying interest in mid-grade fines. Strength in related markets, especially coking coal, helped maintain firm pricing. With levels remaining high, traders are keen to offload cargoes, while short-term demand for mainstream grades continues to hold strong.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports held relatively stable w-o-w at 131.05 mnt on 24 Jul, as per data published by SteelHome.
a) Spot pellet premium edges up w-o-w: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellet increased by $0.8/t w-o-w to $17.45/t CFR China on 23 July.
b) Spot lump premium rises w-o-w: Spot lump premium inched up slightly by $0.0125/dmtu to $0.1825/dmtu on 25 July.
2. Coking coal prices edge up w-o-w: Australian PHCC prices rose $3/t w-o-w to $176/t FOB amid bullish Chinese sentiment, as met coke producers implemented a second round of price hikes, accepted by steel mills, signalling bullish sentiment. Imports from Mongolia and Russia gained pace amid tight domestic supply, while a third hike is proposed. Meanwhile, coking coal futures surged 11% on 23 July, hitting the daily limit for a third session, driven by intensified safety checks in Shanxi following a rise in mine accidents.
3. Billet prices up w-o-w on surging coking coal: Tangshan billet prices rose by RMB 50/t ($7/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,160/t ($441/t incl. VAT) as of 25 July driven by a surge in coking coal prices and speculation around capacity cuts. SHFE Oct’25 rebar futures also jumped by RMB 189/t ($26/t) to RMB 3,356/t ($468/t) w-o-w.
Mid-week, billet prices briefly dipped by RMB 30/t ($4/t) to RMB 3,110/t ($434/t) on profit booking and a mild demand lull. Still, sentiment remained positive, backed by stimulus hopes, a bullish stock market, and falling inventories.
4. Domestic HRC prices rise w-o-w: China’s HRC offers rose sharply by RMB 100/t ($14/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,290/t ($459/t) against RMB 3,190/t ($445/t) following the increase in SHFE futures. SHFE HRC futures surged by RMB 156/t ($22/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,477/t ($485/t) on 25 July against RMB 3,321/t ($463/t) on 18 July. China’s steel prices rose sharply amid speculation that the government may cut coal supply and curb excess steel production. This drove coal prices higher, further supporting steel prices. Additionally, a major hydropower project boosted market optimism for future demand.
Moreover, Chinese HRC export offers increased by $20/t w-o-w to $478/t against $458/t a week ago, given the strong performance of Shanghai steel futures.
5. Domestic rebar prices surge w-o-w: China’s rebar climbed by RMB 130/t ($18/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,310/t ($462/t) against RMB 3,180/t ($444/t), a week ago. SHFE rebar futures (October 2025 contract) stood at RMB 3,316/t ($463/t) on 26 July, increased by RMB 160/t ($22/t) as compared to RMB 3,156/t ($440/t) on 18 July. The rise in rebar prices is attributed to increase in SHFE futures.
China’s Shagang Steel has raised its rebar and wire rod prices by RMB 50/t ($7/t) for late-Jul’25 sales, as per sources. Prices of rebars, coiled rebars, and wire rods are as follows:
- Rebars (16-25 mm): RMB 3,350/t ($467/t)
- Coiled rebars (8-10 mm): RMB 3,510/t ($489/t)
- Wire rods (6-10 mm): RMB 3,420/t ($477/t)
Outlook
In the near term, China’s steel prices are likely to witness an upward trend, supported by strong market sentiment and rising production costs. However, upcoming government meetings towards the month-end and China-US trade talks may introduce volatility.
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