India: Trade-level HRC prices fall by up to INR 800/t w-o-w on weak seasonal demand

• Sellers ramp up efforts to clear inventories
• Domestic vehicle sales fall 6% m-o-m in Jun

Trade-level prices of hot-rolled coils (HRCs) in India declined by up to INR 800/tonne (t) w-o-w to INR 48,800-50,600/t ($565-586/t) across markets, amid weak seasonal demand. Moreover, cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices dropped by INR 500/t w-o-w to INR 54,500-59,000/t ($631-683/t).

BigMint’s benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRCs (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) dropped by INR 200/t ($2/t) w-o-w to INR 49,000/t ($567/t) on 22 July 2025 against INR 49,200/t ($569/t) a week ago. On the other hand, CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm/CTL) prices inched up by INR 100/t ($1/t) w-o-w to INR 56,100/t ($649/t) on Tuesday against INR 56,000/t ($648/t). These prices are ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.

Market updates

Mills, traders focus on clearing inventories: The Indian domestic HRC market is currently experiencing a significant slowdown in demand, influenced by a generally bearish market sentiment and sluggish sales activity during the monsoon. As buying interest continues to fade, both steel mills and traders are increasingly focused on clearing their existing inventories.

“To maintain some sales volume, they are reportedly even considering offering price support with talks of INR 2,000-2,500/t reductions, though this is not confirmed,” a market participant informed BigMint.

Buyers, however, remained largely on the sidelines, adopting a “wait-and-watch” approach. They held out for more definitive market signals before committing to purchases, expecting further potential price drops.

Dip in domestic vehicle sales signals slowing demand: Meanwhile, SIAM’s monthly OEM sales and production data indicate a slowdown in demand, with total domestic sales falling by 5.6% to 2,008,933 units in June from 2,129,525 units in May.

Import volumes: India’s bulk imports of HRCs touched 361,505 t as of 19 July, based on vessel line-up data. Around 236,660 t of additional cargo are expected by the first week of August.

Export volumes: India’s bulk exports of HRCs touched 20,606 t as of 19 July, based on vessel line-up data with BigMint.

Indian HRC export offers to the EU declined amid reduced inquiries during Northern Europe’s summer holidays, with most buyers staying on the sidelines and waiting for clearer market direction following the holiday season.

Moreover, Indian mills withheld offers to the Middle East amid firm domestic demand and competitive offers from other exporters.

Outlook

The Indian HRC market is expected to remain under pressure in the short term due to subdued end-user demand, the seasonal slowdown, and cautious buyer sentiment, with buyers particularly apprehensive about upcoming price announcements. However, a rapid uptrend in Chinese HRC prices offers a sliver of hope for Indian manufacturers, potentially improving their competitive positioning.