- Monsoon slows coal dispatches from ports
- Freight rates climb up on vessel scarcity
Indian portside thermal coal prices remained largely stable during the week ending 18 July 2025. A combination of weak industrial demand, balanced inventories, and monsoon-driven logistical hurdles kept market activity subdued and prices firm but quiet.
Prices on pause: Key grades see stability
According to BigMint’s latest assessment, Indonesian 5000 GAR coal prices stayed steady at INR 7,150/t at Kandla Port and at INR 7,050/t in Vizag. The 4200 GAR also held its ground, priced at INR 5,700/t at Kandla and INR 5,600/t at Vizag.
Lower-calorific 3400 GAR coal was stable at INR 4,300/t at Navlakhi Port. This flat pricing suggests the market is consolidating as supply and demand find temporary equilibrium.
Demand dips amid stable stocks at port
Market insiders said that demand remains soft while prices hold firm. The onset of the monsoon season has disrupted port operations, slowing coal dispatches. Typical seasonal weather impacts have led to stock accumulation at ports such as Hazira and Gangavaram, with port inventories hovering at around 15.84 million tonnes in week 28, almost unchanged w-o-w.
Freight rates climb on vessel crunch
Freight costs from East Kalimantan to Navlakhi jumped by $1.47 per dry metric tonne w-o-w to $15.58/DMT, driven by heightened cargo demand and limited vessel availability. Despite this increase, trade activity on the Indonesia-India coal route remains muted due to low bidding and restrained buying interest.
Power plants face uneven coal stock distribution
Coal inventories at Indian thermal power plants slipped to 58.52 mnt as of 14 July 2025, down from 59.88 mnt in the previous week. While these levels support around 20 days of power generation, 12 plants are grappling with critically low coal stocks split between domestic, imported, and washery rejects highlighting persistent logistical and allocation inefficiencies.
Global price signals mixed amid market caution
Internationally, Indonesian thermal coal prices exhibited a mixed picture. The 5800 GAR edged up by $0.32/t to $72.45, while the 4200 GAR dropped by a negligible $0.03/t to $ 40.18/t. Meanwhile, the 3400 GAR also posted a marginal decrease of $0.60/t to $27.93/t.
Outlook: Stability with a cloud of uncertainty
Indonesian thermal coal prices at Indian ports are expected to stay stable in the short term, supported by steady inventories and subdued buying during the monsoon. However, logistical disruptions and uneven coal distribution at power plants may cause localized supply issues. Without a demand rebound post-monsoon, prices could face slight downward pressure, keeping the market range-bound.
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