- Local ore shortages in Indonesia drive up demand
- Historically, China is Philippines’ biggest importer
Southeast Asia’s nickel trade is undergoing a significant shift in 2025, as the Philippines is set to boost its nickel ore exports to Indonesia tenfold from around 1 million tonnes (mnt) to as much as 10 mnt. This dramatic rise is driven by surging demand from Indonesian refineries, especially those backed by Chinese investment, which are facing local ore shortages due to Indonesia’s tighter mining controls.
Historically, China was the primary destination for Philippine nickel ore. However, with Indonesia tightening restrictions to promote domestic processing and safeguard its ore reserves, Chinese-backed Indonesian smelters are increasingly sourcing nickel ore from the Philippines to secure feedstock.
Philippine nickel output overview
The Philippines produces over 30 mnt of nickel ore annually, with China traditionally being the largest importer. However, recently, exports to Indonesia have surged and are expected to increase by 5 mnt to a total of 10 mnt this year. Following this, shipments to Indonesia will account for between 16-33% of the country’s total production, marking a significant shift in the region’s nickel trade dynamics.
However, the recent surge in exports may only be a short-term development. Indonesia’s long-term objective remains achieving self-sufficiency and enhancing domestic value addition, which could reduce its reliance on Philippine nickel ore once local policies and supplies become more stable.
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